If Musk does convince anyone to go on a Mars mission in the near future, it isn't going to end well.  At all.  The many physiological issues caused by long-term weightlessness aren't solved, and both the journey and the Martian environment are extremely perilous.  It's a toss-up what will kill the astronauts - medical emergency en route, lethal amounts of radiation, technology failure, crash landing, or surface conditions on Mars itself.

I give them perhaps a 5% chance of getting into orbit around Mars with no fatalities, < 1% chance of a successful landing, and 0% chance of surviving an entire year on the planet.

I wonder what the martians are going to be doing that will make it worth it for the company to treat them better than they treat earthlings.

(September 30, 2024 at 8:31 pm)Astreja Wrote: I give them perhaps a 5% chance of getting into orbit around Mars with no fatalities, < 1% chance of a successful landing, and 0% chance of surviving an entire year on the planet.

I'm curious about how you arrived at these figures. The < 1% chance of a successful landing is especially puzzling. They wouldn't be attempting the first crewed landing until they had already landed at least a dozen automated cargo ships first. They wouldn't have a choice, really. They would need literally tons of supplies waiting for them when they arrived. Landing should be well established by the time they try to land people.

(September 30, 2024 at 4:23 pm)bemore Wrote: Having humanity on another planet is a nice back up, should Earth get hit by something from space.

Human extinction is a virtual certainty. The alternative, of course, is a shitload of empty water bottles clogging up whatever planet we might find hospitable.

Mars is not one of them.

(September 30, 2024 at 4:37 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: First of all, by the time we’d be able to establish a viable colony on Mars, humankind would likely be extinct already.

What's your time-frame on this? When do you think humans will go extinct?

Soon.

(October 1, 2024 at 12:03 am)Silver Wrote: Soon.

In human terms? Like a week from Wednesday?

I think we'll be around for quite a bit longer. Maybe long enough to catch a stray comet, but that depends. And I think we'll outlive the first few attempts to colonize Mars as well.

What would be cool is sending Musk on the first mission, and then just shutting off the radio.

(September 30, 2024 at 10:33 pm)AFTT47 Wrote:

(September 30, 2024 at 8:31 pm)Astreja Wrote: I give them perhaps a 5% chance of getting into orbit around Mars with no fatalities, < 1% chance of a successful landing, and 0% chance of surviving an entire year on the planet.

I'm curious about how you arrived at these figures. The < 1%  chance of a successful landing is especially puzzling. They wouldn't be attempting the first crewed landing until they had already landed at least a dozen automated cargo ships first. They wouldn't have a choice, really. They would need literally tons of supplies waiting for them when they arrived. Landing should be well established by the time they try to land people.

The 5% is a guesstimate based on the physical effects of space travel breaking down the body during the long voyage, and the inaccessibility of medical care out there.  Essentially, a 1-in-20 chance of having no major medical emergencies and no fatalities. The Martian atmosphere is sufficiently thin that rockets will be required to land safely and, well, Musk doesn't have great luck with rockets, so a 1-in-5 chance of having a safe and uncomplicated landing.

Sending supplies on ahead is the only sensible thing to do, but since this is Musk's vanity project I'm expecting him to cut a lot of corners to try to speed things along.

(October 1, 2024 at 12:41 am)Astreja Wrote:

(September 30, 2024 at 10:33 pm)AFTT47 Wrote: I'm curious about how you arrived at these figures. The < 1%  chance of a successful landing is especially puzzling. They wouldn't be attempting the first crewed landing until they had already landed at least a dozen automated cargo ships first. They wouldn't have a choice, really. They would need literally tons of supplies waiting for them when they arrived. Landing should be well established by the time they try to land people.

The 5% is a guesstimate based on the physical effects of space travel breaking down the body during the long voyage, and the inaccessibility of medical care out there.  Essentially, a 1-in-20 chance of having no major medical emergencies and no fatalities.  The Martian atmosphere is sufficiently thin that rockets will be required to land safely and, well, Musk doesn't have great luck with rockets, so a 1-in-5 chance of having a safe and uncomplicated landing.

Sending supplies on ahead is the only sensible thing to do, but since this is Musk's vanity project I'm expecting him to cut a lot of corners to try to speed things along.

Musk doesn't have great luck with rockets? I beg to differ. I remember well the initial efforts to land the Falcon 9 boosters. Explosion after spectacular explosion which Musk called RUDs for Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly in a bit of self-deprecating humor. Then they successfully landed a booster. And then another. And another. They went on to land over 300 of them consecutively until that streak was finally broken by a booster which had flown > 20 times.

I don't mean to pick on you Astreja but most everybody here is guilty of not paying Musk his due. I agree with most of you that the man is a royal asshole but he is also a brilliant visionary.

I agree with you regarding the physical effects of space travel breaking down the body during the long voyage and have been puzzled by Musk's lack of efforts to address that. It IS addressable but it will probably require a purpose-built interplanetary ship with nuclear rockets and radiation shielding at minimum. A rotating section to privide at least some small gravity would be desirable too. Such a craft is something you would probably build in space. But you would need a space-based infrastructure first which would probably be based on the moon. So I think Musk is putting the cart before the horse, blinded by his impatience.

(October 1, 2024 at 12:01 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:

(September 30, 2024 at 4:37 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote: First of all, by the time we’d be able to establish a viable colony on Mars, humankind would likely be extinct already.

What's your time-frame on this? When do you think humans will go extinct?

Not more than 1000 years.

Boru