where do you think the Arab world will be headed at the conclusion of the Arab Spring?

I think it would go through a phase similar to the age of enlightenment the west went through, although very late to the party. However, they can't do that when the radical Islamists have the loudest voice in the region, not to mention the fact that they have a lot of power.

Egypt needs to get rid of the brotherhood, they actually want to erase every erotic scene from Egypt's film library (& kissing to them is erotic), impose Sharia law, & Islamize the region.

in Bahrain, the brotherhood also have a political party, they are pro-government however, they mostly preach about how Shiite's should be sent to Iran, ban alcohol, & new laws preventing women from running for elections or voting, thankfully they don't have a big following here in Bahrain, & the opposition has the two biggest parties in the country, one of them is Shiite & the other one is a leftist liberal party (with a big closeted atheists following).

Syria also has the Muslim brotherhood "waiting in the wings" according to a lot of articles, they're closely tied to the Egyptian party, I don't know whether they have a big influence in Syria or not, but I really hope they don't.

in Libya, I like the fact that the brotherhood aren't gaining much traction, & of course, what do they do? they accuse the democratic party of manipulation.

I don't know about Yemen, their biggest political party is a member of the Muslim brotherhood, but they haven't been very vocal.

I haven't heard about them a lot in Tunisia, but other Islamist parties could take over of course.

its quite simple, the Muslim brotherhood is bad news, they're parasites, they're everywhere, & they have power, squashing them would be the only way to leave the dark ages. hopefully, in a couple of decades most countries in the ME would be secular, then they can focus their resources on developing the country instead of religious police & all that non sense.

I will post updates on the situation in Bahrain in this thread also, feel free to contribute with articles, videos, or news related to the Arab Spring.

The middle east has always been a mess.
I don't see that ending any time soon.
Religion and tribalism are too entrenched.

An enlightenment sort of situation is unlikely in that the field is no longer wide open, and the barrier to entry is higher. The best we could expect is a quick game of catch-up. That would be refreshing, to see civilization return to of of it's oldest bastions.

Quote:where do you think the Arab world will be headed at the conclusion of the Arab Spring?

Straight down the islamist crapper.

A bunch of Islamist governed countries that would in the long run, become more coordinated and thus become a bigger, more persistent, and more fundamental geopolitical problem for the west than ever before.

(July 30, 2012 at 12:28 pm)downbeatplumb Wrote: The middle east has always been a mess.
I don't see that ending any time soon.
Religion and tribalism are too entrenched.

Line by line

Oh 'Always' ?

Of course not, you have not taken the paper bag off your head yet.

Isn't it funny how tribalism, refers to non Europeans, Nationalist, is what the worst elements of the white working class are, and we of the liberal elites are so much above that sort of thing.

Given how much Egypt relies on tourism, the Islamists may cripple the economy if they do, as some media claim, ban bikinis.

Libya will be ok. They have oil, elected in a liberal, so they should do ok. The Islamists did crap in their elections, which whilst surprising, was fantastic.


The Muslim Brotherhood are indeed parasites. They jumped on the uprisings and claimed them as Islamic uprisings when they were democratic uprisings.

Quote:The middle east has always been a mess.
I don't see that ending any time soon.
Religion and tribalism are too entrenched.

Quote:An enlightenment sort of situation is unlikely in that the field is no longer wide open, and the barrier to entry is higher. The best we could expect is a quick game of catch-up. That would be refreshing, to see civilization return to of of it's oldest bastions.

Quote:Straight down the islamist crapper.

if that does happen, I'll just dump the place & start a family in the middle of nowhere, I don't want to place all my eggs in one basket, but its the only available basket.

Quote:Given how much Egypt relies on tourism, the Islamists may cripple the economy if they do, as some media claim, ban bikinis.

Libya will be ok. They have oil, elected in a liberal, so they should do ok. The Islamists did crap in their elections, which whilst surprising, was fantastic.


The Muslim Brotherhood are indeed parasites. They jumped on the uprisings and claimed them as Islamic uprisings when they were democratic uprisings.

Agreed, Egypt relies on tourism & Cinema, & since they're not as big on oil as Saudi Arabia, they can't afford to lose their biggest income machines.

---

the two biggest political opposition parties in bahrain are Al Wefaq National Islamic Society & National Democratic Action Society.

Al-Wefaq sometimes scare me, its true that they're not for banning women from running for elections or voting, & they're anti-Muslim brotherhood, but they have "Islamic" in their name, & that's scary enough.
I guess its because they already declared that they don't want Bahrain to be an Islamic state & that they're working with other left wing parties that makes me untrust them less.
their leader is Ali Salman:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Salman

the other one is also known as Wa'ad, they're a leftist & liberal party, I don't agree with some of their views, but I trust them to demand a secular state, I also trust them more because their members aren't from a certain sect, they have Sunni & Shiite members as well as closeted atheists.
their leader is Ibrahim Sharif, currently serving 5 years on bogus charges:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Sharif_Al-Sayed

they have a weirdly good relationship, one of them is a left wing party while the other one is a right wing party, yet they're in very good terms & they support each other in elections, I guess its because they've been fighting the government for decades together & that's why they're in good terms.

another public figure is Nabeel Rajab, the president of the Bahrain center for human rights, he's also a member of other human rights organization, what makes him very well liked is that he doesn't align himself with anybody, he speaks of the human rights violations in Bahrain & the demands of the people & stops there, he's currently serving three months for tweeting something the government doesn't like.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabeel_Rajab

since Nabeel Rajab's arrest, the new president for BCHR is Zainab Al-Khawaja, daughter of co-founder Abdulhadi Al-Khawaja.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zainab_Al_khawaja

other known activists are:

Munira Fakhro, a women's rights activists:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munira_Fakhro

Lamees Dhaif, a journalist that's been a pain on the government's ass for years:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamees_Dhaif

Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, co-founder of BCHR, currently serving a life sentence for bogus charges:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdulhadi_al-Khawaja


I'll post a few videos & articles later.

Yeah I remeber reading somewhere that if you want to learn Arabic, you should learn colloquial Egyptian Arabic as everyone watches their films and can understand it. Quite amazing is how different Arabic is throughout the Middle East and North Africa and some people from one part cannot understand a word each other is saying from another part.

(July 30, 2012 at 3:32 pm)jonb Wrote: [quote='downbeatplumb' pid='317021' dateline='1343665713']
The middle east has always been a mess.
I don't see that ending any time soon.
Religion and tribalism are too entrenched.

Quote:Line by line

Oh 'Always' ?

Yep always, looking at history that area has always been in turmoil scrabbling over their petty diferences fighting the greeks the romans and each other.

Quote:Of course not, you have not taken the paper bag off your head yet.

Isn't it funny how tribalism, refers to non Europeans, Nationalist, is what the worst elements of the white working class are, and we of the liberal elites are so much above that sort of thing.

Tribalism effects everywhere to a lesser or greater extent we have to contend with the dolts of the EDL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Defence_League

But it is not so entrenched as it is in the middle east and africa. Where people are always carrying out revenge for what one people did to the others grandfather and so the cycle continues.
I had many relatives who were killed by germans and turks in various conflicts but I hold the current generations no ill will.
The Arab cultures seem to hold on to their hate for a stupidly long time.
I bet they still smart over the crusades.