I personally don't believe in free will, but I think no one can offer proof for either side of the argument. We can speculate, and take the thought process back to it's beginning, but in the end, until science uncovers something conclusive about consciousness and the mind, I don't think we can know.
I believe that every thought is influenced by the thought before it, and so on and on. Take birth for example. As you come into reality, you interpret it straight away. You might not use words, but something in you observes and makes an interpretation of reality. Awareness might even take place in the womb. I don't know what the acoustics are in women's bellies, but a baby might even be making observations of reality while he's hanging out in the womb. It's a strange thought.
But as the baby grows into a kid and a kid into an adult, each thought is giving way to the next. Why would did he want to play soccer? Some thought before that, or combination of thoughts. It's like a really complicated equation. But don't ever think that two people can be exactly the same in personality and beliefs, for the ordering of each experience is integral to someone's make up. If one experience happens, the next one will happen in relation to the first, for the person has made an observation on the first, and changes his reaction in subsequent observation of the second.
Perhaps you could apply it to the universe and evolution. To the blind eye, it appears random and that it happened at chance. But the more we enquire, the more reasons we find for something happening. Free will could be likened to random thoughts or choices, that is, not predetermined. So when we look at thoughts and beliefs, it appears random and hence appears the humans on the whole, are free creatures. But with closer observation on the human mind and consciousness, I think we will find a certain order to the equation of thoughts, choices and beliefs.
I made a choice to go down the road and buy milk. I needed the milk because I'd run out. I'd run out because I'd drank it all. I drank it all because I was thirsty. I was thirsty because I didn't drink enough water. I didn't drink enough water because I was pissed off about an argument with a friend. I was pissed of about the argument because he didn't listen to me. He didn't listen to me because he is very outspoken and doesn't like listening, he likes to talk. He likes to talk more than listen because he's insecure. He's insecure because of his childhood. etc. etc. etc.
It's an extremely simplified version of what I think is happening everyday.
Despite not believing in free will, and everything I have said above, I still believe that there is not one thing we can do about it, and would be happy to change my mind if there was sufficient evidence to do so. The only thing we as humans can do is live. Whether we believe in free will or not, we still have to make choices, so I think the best resolution is to go on making choices and decisions, forming beliefs and so on. A lot of people are paralyzed by the idea that they're not free.
What really makes it weird is when you start asking, what made us think about this? What part of fate decided that we should question it? I know you could describe it the same as above, but it seems like fate, or destiny or whatever word you use is playing a trick on us
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