Official live update of spread of COVID19

[brewer]

Eventually everyone is in an at risk category. Cancer, heart failure, stroke, ............... I fit all of these, and a couple more.

It appears to be a twitter quote:
"Nils Gilman @nils_gilman

If 40-70% of humanity ends infected with covid-19 (of which 30-70% are asymptomatic), and the death rate (for the symptomatic) is 1-3%, then the total fatalities worldwide for coronavirus will be between 10m and 100m, and between 400k and 5m in the United States."

I'm not sure he's the medical authority I'd look to for predictions: https://www.berggruen.org/people/nils-gilman/

First time I've seen the twitter post but he's quoting Prof. Marc Lipsitch.

Lipsitch predicted the 40 to 70% infection rate (published in the Atlantic which Gilman also tweeted about), not the 10 to 100 million dead.

[Mr Greene]

First time I've seen the twitter post but he's quoting Prof. Marc Lipsitch.

Lipsitch predicted the 40 to 70% infection rate (published in the Atlantic which Gilman also tweeted about), not the 10 to 100 million dead.

Lipsitch: So say that's half the people. Then the 1% or 2% that we're seeing in the symptomatic people is cut down by half. Whatever the number is, it's gonna take a toll. If it really does spread as widely as that projection says, and that's what I think is likely to happen, then there are gonna be millions of people dying. And I don't think there's any way to get around that. And so I think there's real reason for people to be concerned. I also think that we can turn that concern into actions that will make the situation better.

It appears that children aren't at risk at all as the virus needs receptors that don't develop till puberty.
As I'm under 60 I don't fit the age bracket nor do I have any of the health concerns listed.

[brewer]

Lipsitch predicted the 40 to 70% infection rate (published in the Atlantic which Gilman also tweeted about), not the 10 to 100 million dead.

Lipsitch: So say that's half the people. Then the 1% or 2% that we're seeing in the symptomatic people is cut down by half. Whatever the number is, it's gonna take a toll. If it really does spread as widely as that projection says, and that's what I think is likely to happen, then there are gonna be millions of people dying. And I don't think there's any way to get around that. And so I think there's real reason for people to be concerned. I also think that we can turn that concern into actions that will make the situation better.

I don't see "10 to 100 million". Is there something like bible code in this statement that I can't decipher?

All Gilman did was worst case scenario math, based on 7.8 billion population. That's not a good medical science predictor.

Edit: If you want to keep beating a dead horse, have at it.

[Mr Greene]

Take the best case scenario presented then;
7 and half billion, x 40% = 3 billion.
30% symptomatic = 900 million
1% motality = 9 million

[brewer]

Take the best case scenario presented then;
7 and half billion, x 40% = 3 billion.
30% symptomatic = 900 million
1% motality = 9 million

[Mr Greene]

Take the best case scenario presented then;
7 and half billion, x 40% = 3 billion.
30% symptomatic = 900 million
1% motality = 9 million

I take it you have a better figure?

[brewer]

I take it you have a better figure?

Nope, I'm saying simple math is not a good predictor. What happens if, like influenza, coronavirus is seasonal and transmission/death rates drop drastically? What if people pay attention and alter the transmission rate? There are to many variables not taken into account.

[Mr Greene]

I take it you have a better figure?

Nope, I'm saying simple math is not a good predictor. What happens if, like influenza, coronavirus is seasonal and transmission/death rates drop drastically? What if people pay attention and alter the transmission rate? There are to many variables not taken into account.

Iran doesn't seem a particularly cold or damp place yet the transmission seems unaffected.

[brewer]

Nope, I'm saying simple math is not a good predictor. What happens if, like influenza, coronavirus is seasonal and transmission/death rates drop drastically? What if people pay attention and alter the transmission rate? There are to many variables not taken into account.

Iran doesn't seem a particularly cold or damp place yet the transmission seems unaffected.

Are you now saying that variables should not be considered? You do understand that the 1 to 3 percent CFR itself may be questionable at this time based on variables.

[Mr Greene]

Do you have any evidence that anything other than quarantine has any effect on the spread?