Final part, the Minor parties.
1) Renua
This was a party founded by lifelong opportunistic anti-abortionist (she was actually pro choice until at least 2012) Lucinda Creighton, over the fact that her career within Fine Gael wasn't advancing as quickly as she liked (i.e. she hadn't jumped from junior to full Minister in a cabinet reshuffle). She's an idiot and she managed to get a couple of idiot anti-aborts to join her. This party is hard right in all aspects, it effectively wants to drive the country back to the 1950s.
Currently with 3 TDs will probably not get an increase and Loose Lips Creighton herself (she is fond of gossiping to the papers) may lose her seat, when she left Fine Gael she forgot to bring the local party apparatus along with her and she doesn't perform well at the Parish Pump. The party itself has larger problems, as evidenced by the fact that the Facebook page bearing it's name was a spoof for a number of weeks after the party launched.
2) Social Democrats
Mostly made up of old style Labour people who are sick of the party's capitulation to the right in the recent government, and crusading anti-corruption TD Catherine Murphy, they also have three TDs but will be more likely to pick up votes than Renua simply because of the more leftward sentiment within the Irish electorate this time around. Based around ideas of Nordic Social Democracy and anti-corruption, their local candidate James Heffernan will get my No. 1.
3) Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit
An alliance of two trotskyist parties who hate each others guts and sundry independents. I'm a convinced lefty myself but, primitive and outmoded concept on a crutch, these guys are a bunch of idiots. Their policy is "no taxes, lots of services". They're the kind of lefties the right love to point to to denigrate the rest of us. Will gain votes, and probably seats simply on protest alone.
4) Independents
These guys and ladies are a disparate bunch of people, from far right freedmen on the land wackjobs to trotskyists who don't play well with their fellow ideologues. Usually independents are made up of four groups, people who have a strong personal vote but are fringe politically, spurned members of Fianna Fáil who lost out on a nomination at convention, cute hoors, and single issue candidates. We will return at least 15 independents.
People to watch out for: Shane Ross (dyed in the wool blueshirt, who says he is campaigning on an anti-corruption ticket, but simply wants a ministerial Merc), Michael and Danny Healy-Rae, sons of now deceased spurned FFer Jackie Healy-Rae, and cut from the same cute hoor cloth as their father, Mick Wallace failed businessman, soccer club owner and famous wearer of pink polo necked shirts, Clare Daly Wallace's main squeeze.
My Prediction:
Fine Gael will come out the biggest single party, but without Labour, who're fucked completely, or any right wing to coalesce with, they'll be scrabbling madly to form a government next month.
Michael Martin will be kingmaker, he can go a couple of directions either support Fine Gael through a coalition or on a vote to vote basis (the second more likely) or hold his nose and propose coalition with Sinn Féin and the rest of the left.
Sinn Féin will continue to grow but they are adamant they won't go into goverment unless they're the largest single party in a coalition and get the Taoiseach, so they'll probably sit on the opposition benches to 2020.
The small parties will gain with the exception of Renua.
So either expect a grand coalition of FF and FG, a rainbow coalition of FF and anybody who's not FG or a period of stalemate cut by a new election some time in the summer. Great fun.
1) Renua
This was a party founded by lifelong opportunistic anti-abortionist (she was actually pro choice until at least 2012) Lucinda Creighton, over the fact that her career within Fine Gael wasn't advancing as quickly as she liked (i.e. she hadn't jumped from junior to full Minister in a cabinet reshuffle). She's an idiot and she managed to get a couple of idiot anti-aborts to join her. This party is hard right in all aspects, it effectively wants to drive the country back to the 1950s.
Currently with 3 TDs will probably not get an increase and Loose Lips Creighton herself (she is fond of gossiping to the papers) may lose her seat, when she left Fine Gael she forgot to bring the local party apparatus along with her and she doesn't perform well at the Parish Pump. The party itself has larger problems, as evidenced by the fact that the Facebook page bearing it's name was a spoof for a number of weeks after the party launched.
2) Social Democrats
Mostly made up of old style Labour people who are sick of the party's capitulation to the right in the recent government, and crusading anti-corruption TD Catherine Murphy, they also have three TDs but will be more likely to pick up votes than Renua simply because of the more leftward sentiment within the Irish electorate this time around. Based around ideas of Nordic Social Democracy and anti-corruption, their local candidate James Heffernan will get my No. 1.
3) Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit
An alliance of two trotskyist parties who hate each others guts and sundry independents. I'm a convinced lefty myself but, primitive and outmoded concept on a crutch, these guys are a bunch of idiots. Their policy is "no taxes, lots of services". They're the kind of lefties the right love to point to to denigrate the rest of us. Will gain votes, and probably seats simply on protest alone.
4) Independents
These guys and ladies are a disparate bunch of people, from far right freedmen on the land wackjobs to trotskyists who don't play well with their fellow ideologues. Usually independents are made up of four groups, people who have a strong personal vote but are fringe politically, spurned members of Fianna Fáil who lost out on a nomination at convention, cute hoors, and single issue candidates. We will return at least 15 independents.
People to watch out for: Shane Ross (dyed in the wool blueshirt, who says he is campaigning on an anti-corruption ticket, but simply wants a ministerial Merc), Michael and Danny Healy-Rae, sons of now deceased spurned FFer Jackie Healy-Rae, and cut from the same cute hoor cloth as their father, Mick Wallace failed businessman, soccer club owner and famous wearer of pink polo necked shirts, Clare Daly Wallace's main squeeze.
My Prediction:
Fine Gael will come out the biggest single party, but without Labour, who're fucked completely, or any right wing to coalesce with, they'll be scrabbling madly to form a government next month.
Michael Martin will be kingmaker, he can go a couple of directions either support Fine Gael through a coalition or on a vote to vote basis (the second more likely) or hold his nose and propose coalition with Sinn Féin and the rest of the left.
Sinn Féin will continue to grow but they are adamant they won't go into goverment unless they're the largest single party in a coalition and get the Taoiseach, so they'll probably sit on the opposition benches to 2020.
The small parties will gain with the exception of Renua.
So either expect a grand coalition of FF and FG, a rainbow coalition of FF and anybody who's not FG or a period of stalemate cut by a new election some time in the summer. Great fun.
Urbs Antiqua Fuit Studiisque Asperrima Belli
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