(April 12, 2016 at 2:25 am)robvalue Wrote: The whole truth of the conclusion rests entirely on the premises being entirely accurate, because that's all it's built on. If one of the premises is wrong for just one tiny area of reality, or if they don't apply to reality itself, or if there are any other premises which may in any way alter the conclusion, the whole thing is completely flawed. There is no way to assess just how off-course this takes it. It's not a case of "how close" they might be, it rests on complete accuracy. Unlike science, where the suitability of the premises can be tested by making predictions. These arguments without evidence produce a blind, useless result.
How exactly do you calculate the probability that the premises are totally accurate, for all of our reality and beyond, and that no relevant premises have been excluded? I'd estimate it at 0%. Can you produce a calculation that says otherwise?
That does not make the argument invalid.
My understanding of assigning probability to an inductive argument is looking at the relationship of the probability of the premises and the conclusion.
1. Everything that begins to exist has a cause
2. The universe began to exist
3. The universe has a cause (and we can assign some description to the cause)
Assign a probability to each premise and the conclusion's probability cannot be lower than the lowest of the premises. It can be higher. There are only two of them so it is not all that complex. Since each premise is reasoned out and defeaters for them seem to be at least less plausible, the conclusion that the universe has a timeless, powerful, transcendent cause seems to also be > 50%.
I am not saying this is 100% proof for God. Only saying that it supports the concept of the God of the Bible.