Game Over for Trump

[KevinM1]

A four-state strategy?

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-ele...ia-n665541

Trump's Campaign Is 'Pulling Out of Virginia'

The move to pull out of Virginia shows Trump is "running essentially a four state campaign," with the focus now shifting to battlegrounds critical to his chances in November: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, a source with knowledge of the decision told NBC News.

The move to pull out of Virginia shows Trump is "running essentially a four state campaign," with the focus now shifting to battlegrounds critical to his chances in November: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, a source with knowledge of the decision told NBC News.

So how is he doing in those four states?

From Real Clear Politics"

North Carolina - Clinton +2.6

Ohio -   Clinton  +0.5

Pennsylvania - Clinton +8.7

Florida - Clinton +2.7

If 538 is as prescient as they've been in the past, that's pretty much his last hope: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...cast/#plus

I think what's funny is that he seems to not realize several important things:

1. Outside of the most hardcore Republicans, Benghazi and the email scandal are dead.  It's literally a dead horse.
2. He's not running against Bill Clinton.
3. There's actual proof of his own misdeeds - his own bragging.  And instead of simply apologizing, he's consistently doubled down on it, to the point where his surrogates are trying to redefine what sexual assault actually entails.

He has no ground game to speak of, outside of a few attack ads.  As rabid as his followers are, there's not much of an effort to get grassroots support, especially now that the GOP has given up on him and are now focused on the down ticket races.

I have the feeling that Nate Silver may be correct, and that ~40% is Trump's ceiling rather than floor.  At least, that's my hope.