(November 5, 2016 at 12:11 pm)Brian37 Wrote:She does not need any toss ups to win. As you say, she can lose fl, Oh, and NC, and still win. She does not need NV, though that would be nice. NH is her only apparent weak spot, and it's still fairly strong. She just needs to hang on to Min, Wi, Pen, and Michigan (and NH), and all of those except NH have polled ALWAYS in her favor, Trump has nearly no chance there. If she loses NH, then it COULD be an electoral tie 268/268, but if she picked up any other tossup like NV, NC, Fl or even the second district of main, it would put her over.(November 5, 2016 at 11:11 am)Alex K Wrote: That'll still be between 3 am and 5 am for us poor 'peans...
No, it will be an early call. There will be no Florida hanging chads or 2000. Regardless of Trump's gains in the past few days, Hillary is still closer to the finish line and basically Trump has to sweep all the toss up states and that is not going to happen. I'd only question the polls in FLA some favor him and others favor her, but surveys have shown there a revolt by republican women so don't be surprised if fla gets called for Hillary.
He can take Fla and Ohio and NC and still lose in any case. He will not win all the toss up states. Hillary only needs her base, leaning and a couple of toss ups and she will get them. It will be called before midnight.
It's a little closer than I would like, and I'm still feeling nervous about the whole thing and can hardly wait for it to be over, but for now her firewall states are mostly strong.
Betting sites Have trump between 3 to 1 and 5 to 1 odds. 538 still gives Clinton a 65% chance to win, and they are THE most conservative estimate out there. Most places give Clinton between a 75% and 90% chance at this point.
I guess we'll see in 4 days....
“Eternity is a terrible thought. I mean, where's it going to end?”
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
