(November 9, 2016 at 12:27 pm)Bella Morte Wrote: Trump has won the election because the voters felt like he wasn't part of the establishment and wasn't your run of the mill politician - they think he will bring around real change. Whether that actually happens or not, we'll just have to wait and see.Yeah, he'll effect change.
Quote:But wait: Isn’t Trump opposed to “entitlement reform,” and isn’t that what the Ryan budget is about? Actually, Trump is opposed to Social Security benefit cuts. Republicans in Congress haven’t seriously talked about messing with Social Security since George W. Bush’s disastrous partial-privatization effort in 2005. And as much as Republicans would like to privatize Medicare benefits, their base is far too old to countenance significant Medicare cuts without Democratic “cover,” which is precisely why “entitlement reform” was so central to every Republican “deal” offered to Barack Obama.So, you can watch poor Americans grow poorer, pay more taxes, lose jobs, lose healthcare, pollute our environment, let the hated corpraions run even more rampant all over us while raising prices, and stripping away basic rights against discrimination based on ethnicity, religion, etc.
So that is why Trump and congressional Republicans should be able to cheerfully, even gleefully, agree to pay for their tax cuts and their Pentagon spending from programs that benefit not their base, but that of the hated Democrats. And Ryan’s already basically written it all up, repeatedly.
But speed and quick marginalization of those hated opponents will be essential. That is why, as Paul Ryan told us all in early October, he has long planned to use the budget reconciliation process — where there is no filibuster available in the Senate — to enact his entire budget in one bill.Again, a bill that cannot be filibustered. He referred to it, appropriately, as a bazooka in his pocket. And while there are some things you cannot do in a reconciliation bill, there aren’t many of them: Congressional Republicans did a trial run last year (nobody paid much attention, because they knew Barack Obama would veto it), and it aimed at crippling Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood, and disabling regulators, in addition to the nasty surprises for poor people mentioned above.
As my colleague Jonathan Chait has explained, Senate Republicans are almost certain to move (as would Democrats in the same situation) to complete the demolition of the filibuster Harry Reid began in 2013 when he eliminated the obstructionist procedure for executive and judicial (other than the Supreme Court) confirmation votes.
So is there anything that could stand in the way of this Un-Great Society blitz? Well, sure: the unpredictability of Donald Trump. Presumably when the celebrations and the theater of a Trump Triumphant subsides, he will sit down with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to cut a deal. What they will want is his signature on that reconciliation bill. What he will want beyond the things in that bill that he and his supporters want, too, is unclear. But what is clear is that if he gives the GOP, in one stroke of the pen, the counterrevolution they have dreamed of for so long, the GOP will give its unlikely president extraordinary freedom to work his will on the world via diplomacy and executive actions.
We are literally very likely to go back to 1960. Race riots here we come? I hope not, but it isn't impossible. I don't even think it's improbable.
“Eternity is a terrible thought. I mean, where's it going to end?”
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead