It's stochastic. We don't know (yet) who will be radicalized by a particular event. We can only reasonably conclude that some people on the margin of being radicalized will be tipped over the edge. Like economics, all the action is on the margin: our actions most affect those already primed for radicalization, whether to tip them over to radicalizing or to bring them back from the brink.
I'm not anti-Christian. I'm anti-stupid.