First order logic, set theory and God

[T0 Th3 M4X]

Right. The difficultly though is that if the first domino can't tip itself, then it can't be the first cause, since whatever caused it to tip would take its place.  It doesn't rule out natural or supernatural though.  That's why I wouldn't go out of my way to say the assert it's "flawed", but rather just needing further explanation.  But for the most part, I agree with you here.

To be fair, this is the best a theist could argue for God (as first cause) without special pleading or anything of the sort. If the OP (who  clearly is a smart guy) could do better, he would've done it.

Maybe at the time, but that is why we do things like peer review.  It's easy to make mistakes.  As a writer and a publisher, I run into the same problem.  I write something and I can go back to edit my draft, but miss the same mistake 10 times because I know in my mind what something is supposed to say, but the tendency is for the mind to imply it.  If someone else reads it, they don't start out with knowing already what it's supposed to say, so that error will likely stick out like a sore thumb.  So even though I'm capable of editing drafts for someone else, I still need someone to edit my drafts.  The best version probably isn't my version, but rather the one that is fine tuned with secondary critique.

I think the same thing applies to complex explanations.  As they grow in complexity, so does the chance for error or even the addition of new variables.

Regardless of whether the conclusion is full proof, I still appreciate when a person, no matter what their religion, ideology, or worldview may be takes the time to understand the world around us and share that with others. I think it takes a bit of courage to put an idea out there knowing there are people who are going to look to shoot it down.