What are our chances of survival for a long time?

[Anomalocaris]

only cockroaches will rule in the end! 

So you have hope for humanity then.  

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Every species of Homo before HSS is gone, so we are likely to follow.

Maybe we are special

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I think the odds are against us, but there's some hope. I would certainly love to have a way to see how it all turns out.

Why do you think there is hope?

Seriously, I think once we reach a state of technology we have now, it seems unlikely we will ever completely lose it.   The ability of technology to facilitate the survive of a moderate number of humans is enormous.    On the other hand, the capacity of technology to propagate discord, accentuate conflict and inflict disasters is also enormous.


So I think it is reasonable to suppose there will be one or more events in our future that would be cataclysmic to mankind, cause the collapse of most of infrastructure and kill off a large portion of the population, perhaps even knocking us down to just a small percentage of peak population.    The cataclysm could be natural, like an asteroid, man made, like a nuclear war, or a combination of the two.    

But I think even in extremis, our remaining technology will enable a portion of humanity to survive.


So I think future will be far less happy than optimists might imagine, but we will prove far more difficult to eradicate than pessimistic think. 

My hunch is we are here at least for hundreds of thousands more years.