Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

I think direct long term occupation is unlikely because:

1. 100,000 troops known to have been assembled is insufficient to impose effective long term hostile occupation of an country a large as Ukraine.   to put it in perspective it is about 2 mechanized divisions able to undertake operation and maneuver over long distance, 3 at most, plus necessary support echelon.  

2. Putin is far too canny a operator to fail to realize there is quite a lot of pro-russian sympathy, and soviet era nostalgia amongst Ukrainian population to simply write off with a forceful long term hostile occupation,  even though there is no doubt any Russian boots that stay in ukraine will be portrayed as occupation in the west and by current ukrainian government.

I would also agree that Putin’s logical objective would be to completely overthrow Ukrainian government and the bind Ukraine to Russia with a russia dominated federal relationship similar to those that existed within the USSR.   However it seems to me that 100,000 troops is insufficient to pull that off cleanly if the current ukrainian government is able to organize any substantial effective defence.,  unless the supposedly democratic ukraine is really quite unpopular and good part of population would actually attempt the thwart an effective defensive against Russian invasion,