Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

I see how waffling on the issue damaged their credibility.  I just couldn't figure out why the suggestion itself would.  Obviously, if there was never any real commitment to get ukraine in that's a given, yeah.  I think the us lost the will to support their inclusion between bush and obama supporting it and today.  Broadly true, I think, of alot in american foreign policy.  I doubt that we'd be able to effectively sell what would inevitably be called the american occupation of ukraine - today.

The fact that NATO says it is receptive to admitting Ukraine while Ukraine says it wants to join, will be perceived as NATO extending a security guaranty while the application is under consideration.    NATO should have refused to start with.   But it too late now, In fact it was on NATO (that is american) initiative that Ukraine got rid of its Russian leaning government and adopted a government whose main reason for being installed is to get Ukraine into NATO. So there was never a chance of nato refusing.

Failure to eventually admit Ukraine while Ukraine is under Russian threat will be perceived as  NATO having no credibility as insurance against Russia pressure and bullying because NATO itself is vulnerable to Russian bullying.

At this point, even if NATO immediate admit Ukraine now the NATO still can;t keep Putin from taking over Ukraine,  so NATO will be seen as not effective as guarantor against Russia aggression if NATO actually admitted Ukraine.

The only way for NATO to emerge with its reputation intact is if somehow Ukraine is seen as voluntarily renouncing its desire to join NATO.   But that won’t happen because Russia is in the middle of bullying Ukraine so there is no possibility of Ukraine withdrawal, even if somehow brought about, being seen as voluntary.

So in effect,  NATO’s dick is nailed to a chopping block, nato is huffing and puffing in hope that it would scare away an axe wielding putin,  while Putin is gleefully sharpening the edge of his axe and making it perfectly clear he knows better than anyone else that nato’s dick is nailed to the chopping block.

---

I see how waffling on the issue damaged their credibility.  I just couldn't figure out why the suggestion itself would.  Obviously, if there was never any real commitment to get ukraine in that's a given, yeah.  I think the us lost the will to support their inclusion between bush and obama supporting it and today.  Broadly true, I think, of alot in american foreign policy.  I doubt that we'd be able to effectively sell what would inevitably be called the american occupation of ukraine - today.

Also, america could not possibly commit to defending Ukraine against Russia.  Russian needs Ukraine much, much, much more than America,   It is existential for Russia.   How much does Russia need ukraine?

Russia needs ukraine as much as america needs nuclear weapons, any nuclear weapons. 

Russia can nuke America as well as america can nuke Russia.   Russia will nuke America over Ukraine, will america be willing to be nuked for ukraine?

---

And the direct effect of Ukraine debacle would not only severely discredit NATO.  

It would also make it clear to China how important it is to have a nuclear arsenal equal to America’s.   This is because except for the nuclear arsenal. Russia is in every other respect far weaker than China.   Yet China can not ride rough shod over american interest in showing it can guaranty the safety of Taiwan, while Russia can ride rough shod over equal american interest in showing it can guaranty the safety of Ukraine.    The key difference is Russian strategic nuclear arsenal

So the you will see China immediately redouble its effort to expand its strategic nuclear arsenal to match that of the US and Russia as a direct consequence.    

So on a scale of 20-3D years, the Bush Administration’d effort to screw Russia in the ass by detaching Ukraine from Russian sphere of influence and adding it to western sphere of influence would also have the effect of tgreatly magnifying America’s chance of facing nuclear annihilation than even the most hostile Russia can manage on its own.

Starting from its immediate reaction to 9-11, America’s foreign policy has been one long, continuous,  unthinking, amateurish, ideologically driven clusterfuck.