RE: Russia and Ukraine
February 22, 2022 at 8:13 pm
(This post was last modified: February 22, 2022 at 8:26 pm by Anomalocaris.)
The back ups are
1. the west lack of any credible deployable land and air power that can remotely approach Russian lamd and air military capabilities in Ukraine and Belorus, So Russian can militarily do whatever it wants there and no one can directly stop them
2. Russian nuclear arsenal makes any threat to attack Russia elsewhere in retaliation for Russian attack in Ukraine inconceivable and thus totally not credible.
3. Europe can’t even keep all the lights on, much less also supply all the heating needs, without Russian gas, so in the end the threat of long term economic retaliation too severe for russia to bear is also not credible. Because russia could easily make the consequences of severe economic sanction on Russia unbearable for Europe.
And there is the fact that in the long run the west fears china whose economy is 10 times bigger and whose technology is competitive across many more areas, much more than Russia, which allows Russia to threaten to play the China card if the west still fail to come to their senses and realize they held no cards in this game in Ukraine which the west started.
Basically the west made some heroic poses, bragged a lot, made a show of nailing their own dicks to Ukraine, and now realized they can neither move away from Ukraine, nor keep Putin from cutting off their dicks.
Compare to western overreach and general lack of clue about the underlying balance of power, Putin is a master. In truth, I would not say he had been particularly brilliant. But he played his hand without serious errors. Unlike the west, which does not appear to even know the rules.
1. the west lack of any credible deployable land and air power that can remotely approach Russian lamd and air military capabilities in Ukraine and Belorus, So Russian can militarily do whatever it wants there and no one can directly stop them
2. Russian nuclear arsenal makes any threat to attack Russia elsewhere in retaliation for Russian attack in Ukraine inconceivable and thus totally not credible.
3. Europe can’t even keep all the lights on, much less also supply all the heating needs, without Russian gas, so in the end the threat of long term economic retaliation too severe for russia to bear is also not credible. Because russia could easily make the consequences of severe economic sanction on Russia unbearable for Europe.
And there is the fact that in the long run the west fears china whose economy is 10 times bigger and whose technology is competitive across many more areas, much more than Russia, which allows Russia to threaten to play the China card if the west still fail to come to their senses and realize they held no cards in this game in Ukraine which the west started.
Basically the west made some heroic poses, bragged a lot, made a show of nailing their own dicks to Ukraine, and now realized they can neither move away from Ukraine, nor keep Putin from cutting off their dicks.
Compare to western overreach and general lack of clue about the underlying balance of power, Putin is a master. In truth, I would not say he had been particularly brilliant. But he played his hand without serious errors. Unlike the west, which does not appear to even know the rules.
