Russia and Ukraine

[Angrboda]

I think Putin is going to annex the Eastern portions of Ukraine, and keep the option on the table of taking the rest when he sees fit.

German reliance on Russian gas guarantees that the response from the West will be only a minor inconvenience.  I heard Putin has 600 Billion dollars in reserve.  He can run his country for years on that (if he hasn't stolen it already).

That seems reasonable. It's also possible he'll make a pretext along the border of the separatist region and invade the rest of the Donbas. Both Ukraine and the rest of the world would be unlikely to put up much resistance, and the world would get used to it just like they have Crimea.