RE: Russia and Ukraine
February 24, 2022 at 2:42 pm
(This post was last modified: February 24, 2022 at 2:45 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(February 24, 2022 at 2:01 pm)viocjit Wrote: I'd like to know a thing I can't know for the moment because this information isn't public and will maybe be never published or after my death (I'm 28 years old. If the information is released in 100 years or more I would be dead accorded to medical knowledge of nowadays).
This thing is the next. The president of Russian Federation initially wanted to put Ukraine under pressure (When Russians troops were around the border between the two states) or he did prepared invasion for month or years ?
If Russia invades fully the Ukrainian territory.
Does it means Putin will attack a country member of European Union or / and a NATO member ?
If the President of Russia attack an EU country.
What will do others members of this union ? In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
EU countries have the legal obligation to assist each others in case of an attack.
If the Russian President choose to attack a state member of NATO. In this case I hope they will fight (Military or / and non-military) with the party under attack by any means.
Think about article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It can be used. It can maybe finish in a nuclear war.
War isn't fun , war is devastating for all parties involved , war with two sides who have an access to nuclear weapons is terrifying if a faction or both choose to use these.
Full extract of article 5 in English :
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security"
Link to the treaty on official NATO website : https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/off..._17120.htm
Text is available in 27 languages (Some of them aren't languages of NATO members. The language of some members isn't available) : Albanian , Armenian , Croatian , Czech , Danish , Dutch , English , Estonian , French , Georgian , German , Greek , Hebrew , Hungarian , Icelandic , Italian , Latvian , Lithuanian , Norwegian , Polish , Portuguese , Russian , Slovenian , Spanish , Turkish , Ukrainian.
Full extract of article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations (There are a reference to it in article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) :
"Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security."
Link to the charter on official UN website (Text available in the six official languages of UN that are Arabic , Chinese , English , French , Russian , Spanish) : https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter
Ukraine is neither a part of NATO nor a part of EU. Clearly Russia is absolutely determined to make 100% certain it never would be part of either. As to whether in the future Russia would attack a actual NATO country that depends on if NATO/US actions over the next few years confine Russia that having more strategic depth than afforded by Ukraine is indispensable to long term Russia security and position. As to what NATO will do in reaction, that depends, imho, on precisely which NATO country may be in the cross hair, and how determined the US is to keep China from rising as a Euroasia hegemony, or at least East Asia Hegemon.
If the US is absolutely determined to remain the global hegemon, then it would be more important for the US to prevent China from taking Taiwan than to prevent Russia from taking, say the Baltic republics. So if the Russians coordinate its attack on the Baltic republic with a Chinese attack on Taiwan, there is a high chance that the US would elect to focus on protecting Taiwan rather than Baltic republics. If the US takes large losses defending Taiwan, or loses Taiwan, the. Baltic republics would be goners.
On the other hand, if Russia strikes at Poland, or Romania, then I think the US might become concerned Russia really is going restore the former Soviet defensive sphere. In this case it would be harder to say which the US would prioritize, containing China or Russia.
(February 24, 2022 at 2:34 pm)Nomad Wrote:(February 24, 2022 at 12:43 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: well, from 2000-2005, Putin did his best to try to accommodate Russia as it existed then with NATO and the US.
If Putain tried to accomodate Russia with NATO between 2000 and 2005 he would have signed the membership treaty the US was waving in his face at the time.
No, the us waved no such treaty in Russia’s face. Putin suggested Russia may join NATO on the same terms as Ukraine during a televised interview, The US laughed it off and called the idea ridiculous.