Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

Putin: Should I pursue this war against Ukraine?

Oracle of Delphi: If you attack Ukraine, you will destroy a great empire.

Putin: Noice.

Boru

Well, contrary to what some commentators say, I don’t think the fact that Russia hasn’t taken Kyiv is an indication they are bogged down or their momentum have been checked.     I would say they were never going to launch a shock and awe style attack the US attempted to pull off in Iraq.    Arguable such a maneuver would require a large professional core to the standing army and can not be pulled off with an army of largely short term conscripts. 

Twitter videos posted by Ukrainians suggest to me much of the invading Russian forces were conscripts with rather inadaquate training.    For example, in Kharkov Russian soldiers in isolated jeeps were seen driving around inside the city as if on holiday, with no sign of taking cover or watching for snipers.  Ukrainian drone videos show Russian trucks parks near the frontline are packed tightly, not spread out to avoid being taken out by one artillery shell, similarly Russian military convoys consist of vehicles nose to tail, not spread out to minimize damage from artillery, drone or air strikes.    All this says At least major portions of the Russian army near the front line show poor field craft not consistent with a highly proficient army able to take deep penetrating or maneuvering battles. 

A conscript army would not be skilled enough to effectively go from March right into an attack as required by a shock and awe type rapid thrust, or win an encounter battle as a maneuvering forces run into each other.   It probably would be on the loosing end of a blood bath if it were attempt to assault a heavily built up urban area. 

But it can be effective enough in holding a siege line, and participate as second line in a prepared and methodical stage by stage attack.    

What they are attempting to pull off in Kyiv seems to be to be a an encirclement operation in the Soviet style around Stalingrad, not a coup de main in German style into Stalingrad.   They will also likely leave a corridor open for a while to drive the civilians out of the encirclement before closing the trap around government forces and put it under siege until its food and ammunition runs out. 

As a side, during WWII, the Soviet army also suffered from the same handicap that apparently afflict Russian army in Ukraine now.   Soviet army central developmental and training focus after the war was on enhancing their army’s ability to attack right from a March and win encounter battles, as required if they were to drive NATO into the sea in 2 weeks.   By late 1980s they were confident they were superior to NATO and the Americas in the difficult art of deep penetrating battles of maneuver and in efficiency in encounter battles. 

It seems clear under Putin the Russian army has not regained Soviet army’s efficiency on the attack, even on modern Russian army’s much smaller scale.

This army is not going to take poland.

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The Russian ruble is now worth less than one U.S. cent.

It was not worth anywhere close to 2 cents before