(March 4, 2022 at 5:44 am)Anomalocaris Wrote: I wouldn’t be so sure about that.
Well, let's take a look.
Putin's pretexts for the invasion:
-Protect Russian lives: failure
-Stop the eastward expansion of NATO: failure (Sweden and Finland)
Putin's goals for the invasion:
-Restoration of 'Greater Russia' as Russia/Belarus/Ukraine: failure (significant numbers of ethnic Russians in Ukraine no longer support Russia)
-Fracture NATO: abject failure (the invasion has sped up healing the splits in NATO caused by Trump)
Putin's expectations for the invasion:
-It would be done in 100 hours (his promise to the oligarchs): failure
-The world would do nothing: epic failure
-It would serve as a showcase for Russia's military might: failed in terms of morale, logistics, planning and execution
The above aside, can Russia eventually take Ukraine? Probably. But there's a huge difference between taking a country and holding a country. Putin doesn't have the military or economic resources to hold Ukraine in the face of determined opposition by the West. The invasion has already cratered the Russian economy. Sadly, though, Putin's megalomania won't ever allow him to withdraw. Over the next few years, the situation for the average Russian is going to get more and more dire, and Putin is likely to be remembered as the man who removed Russia as a player on the world stage.
Boru
‘I can’t be having with this.’ - Esmeralda Weatherwax
