Russia and Ukraine

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Russia’s biggest logistics problem isn’t equipment, it isn’t food, it isn’t medical supplies, and it isn’t fuel. It’s troops.

The RAND Corporation - who are really, REALLY good at this sort of modeling - has said it takes 20 soldiers of an occupying force per 1000 population of the occupied country to hold it in the face of minimal resistance (the number increases exponentially in the face of moderate or heavy resistance). Right now, Russia is at about a quarter of that.

Putin would need at least 800 000 combat troops to secure Ukraine. He doesn’t have them and he can’t get them without sparking a revolution at home. He’s fucked.

Boru

He doesn't really need to subdue Ukraine if he can subdue Kyiv and a couple of big cities.  Regime change and occupation are different goals.

History is replete with examples of would-be conquerors who held the cities and lost the country due to the rubes being in revolt against them. He would need Russian troops to dealt with such a revolt (he’d be hard-pressed to find enough Ukrainian collaborators to matter).

Boru