Russia and Ukraine

[The Architect Of Fate]

This has been a clusterfuck for Russia.

!) They clearly overestimated the combat power of their own units, while clearly underestimating the combat value of Ukrainian forces.

2) The Russians have not only suffered on the battlefield, but are now and will continue to suffer politically and economically as well.

3) The Russians have squandered any diplomatic trust they may have built upas well.

4) The Russians have dialed back their war-aims from a quick seizure of Kyiv and installing a puppet-government, to refocusing on the Donbas, which they haven't captured after eight years anyway.

5) They've lost the information war.

6) Probably the worst thing for them, they've stuck their nose in the trap, and now must either retreat -- delivering a black eye to Putin -- or keep pressing on into what will likely become an insurgency they cannot afford and will not win.

There are a number of things about this invasion that baffle me, mainly doctrinal. Why didn't they seize control of the air the first day? They have the air force to do it. Why are they sending armor into urban areas without an infantry screen to safeguard the tanks? What has happened to their Army's institutional knowledge such that they're ignoring logistical issues?

Further afield of these military concerns, Putin's Russia has 1) failed in its military objectives 2) failed in its political objectives (NATO being closer rather than split), and 3) perhaps irritated China.

I think Putin's overplayed his hand, and that this will begin the unraveling of his regime.

Yup this was a huge overplay and shows us just how complacent Putin has become