Russia and Ukraine

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

This has been a clusterfuck for Russia.

!) They clearly overestimated the combat power of their own units, while clearly underestimating the combat value of Ukrainian forces. This speaks to a basic failure of intelligence. Sun Tzu wrote something about knowing your enemy and knowing yourself.

2) The Russians have not only suffered on the battlefield, but are now and will continue to suffer politically and economically as well. Putin misjudged the international response.

3) The Russians have squandered any diplomatic trust they may have built up as well. No one trusts an aggressor nation.

4) The Russians have dialed back their war-aims from a quick seizure of Kyiv and installing a puppet-government, to refocusing on the Donbas, which they haven't captured after eight years anyway. The offensive has lost momentum, and they're regrouping with a smaller mission in mind.

5) They've lost the information war.

6) Probably the worst thing for them, they've stuck their nose in the trap, and now must either retreat -- delivering a black eye to Putin -- or keep pressing on into what will likely become an insurgency they cannot afford and will not win, which also delivers a black eye to Putin.

7) Their economy is going to be in the shitter for quite some time to come, which might also bite Putin in the ass, unless he undertakes more repressive measures ... which may only set the Russian people against him more.

There are a number of things about this invasion that baffle me, mainly doctrinal. Why didn't they seize control of the air the first day? They have the air force to do it. Why are they sending armor into urban areas without an infantry screen to safeguard the tanks? What has happened to their Army's institutional knowledge such that they're ignoring logistical issues?

Further afield of these military concerns, Putin's Russia has 1) failed in its military objectives 2) failed in its political objectives (NATO being closer rather than split), and 3) perhaps irritated China.

I think Putin's overplayed his hand, and that this will begin the unraveling of his regime. The only potential use Russia will get from this is that Ukraine has offered no NATO membership, but i that worth the cost in lives, prestige, and perhaps becoming reliant on China for its own strength?

All in all, this is without a doubt Putin's greatest blunder.

I hope the Ukrainians can stave off the attack and that in some way peace comes again to them and their land.

It’s been argued - with some justification, I think - that Putin’s best hope at this point is a negotiated settlement. But, by changing his victory conditions, he’s badly damaged his bargaining position. Any ‘victory’ he’s able to propagandize out of this mess is going to be a victory on Ukraine’s terms, not Russia’s.

Boru