Russia and Ukraine

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

You're too kind, thanks.

I get your point about SEAD, though I think that would be very difficult anyway given that most Ukrainian AD is in the form of MANPADs. For this reason, I was thinking more along the lines of attacking Ukrainian airfields harboring combat planes or repair facilities with stand-off missiles in the opening minutes of the war.

They may well be husbanding their more advanced aircraft in order to address any potential NATO intervention, too.

I'd have to go digging through the toobs, but one of the people I watch semi-regularly from before the war when he was doing his analysis pointed out the fact that the Russian airforce are doing all their sorties at low altitude, indicating that quite a lot of Ukrainian long range and high altitude air defence is still active.  They picked off the fixed point radar installations early on, but that's no real achievement, any airforce with superiority in numbers should be able to do that.  But Russia look to be absolutely cack at taking out mobile air defence and at taking out airfields.

PS I'm sceptical about the idea that Russia are holding back their more advanced aircraft because, a) they know NATO won't involve themselves directly without nukes falling, and b) they've put in their best units and equipment in every other department (which got absolutely spankered as a result) so why keep their planes back (unless they've nobody to fly them)?

I’m also skeptical about the holding back the best aircraft thing. They expected to take Ukraine in 100 hours. Even with the worst intelligence imaginable, you don’t make a plan like that with your second stringers.

A more likely explanation is that the majority of their attack aircraft have been mothballed and neglected for more than a decade, just like their ground assault vehicles. So, they don’t have the advanced aircraft to spare.

Boru