If the Russians are looking to keep this war simmering, that'd be a big mistake. Putin's going to have to crack down domestically ever-harder as the body-bags return home and samizdat gets word out about what's really going on. The Russians have already shut down their largest tank factory due to lack of supplies, war is not a cheap business either, and the sanctions will carry more bite once what's left of Russia's foreign reserves is deplenished.
Meanwhile, the Germans will be forced to abandoned Russian fuel sourcing, and will likely not come back to them even after the war due to the distrust that has been engendered, so there's another long-term effect deleterious to Mother Russia.
Now add in President Xi's willingness to help out a fellow autocrat -- for a price -- and I think the longer Russia stays, the deeper they come under China's sway, the worse off the average Russian will be, the shakier Putin's regime will be, and the lost diplomatic credibility will be abandoned or a generation or two.
Meanwhile, the Germans will be forced to abandoned Russian fuel sourcing, and will likely not come back to them even after the war due to the distrust that has been engendered, so there's another long-term effect deleterious to Mother Russia.
Now add in President Xi's willingness to help out a fellow autocrat -- for a price -- and I think the longer Russia stays, the deeper they come under China's sway, the worse off the average Russian will be, the shakier Putin's regime will be, and the lost diplomatic credibility will be abandoned or a generation or two.
