Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

Only maybe 50 are on intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the US.

That's enough for the sake of deterrence. Look at how NATO is trembling at the thought of a tactical nuke being used in Europe.

Additionally. Chinese SLBMs have a range of 7,000km, so discounting them is not very useful. All told, they appear to have around 250 warheads capable of targeting American cities as far inland as Dallas, and the SLBMs could obviously reach further.

Here's the chart I'm basing this on, from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists:



As for the rest of your post, I think you're fundamentally misreading the shift in power between Russia and China that has happened in the last three decades. Power is economic as well as military as a measure. Deciding to positively stay in Ukraine will only sap Russian military and economic strength, making Putin's regime more unpopular and at best nudging Russia into the status of Chinese vassal as  a matter of economics. Those tanks and planes ain't gonna pay for themselves.

i am not discounting china’s economic power.  The chinese economy on purchase power parity basis is at least 6-7 times larger than Russia’s.  And the ratio doesn’t begin to show the difference in financial power wielded by the two states.   China’s infrastructure is far superior and her overall industrial base is much more diverse and in most respects better organized and more advanced. 

But at the same time one should not oversell stronger economy and underestimate other aspect of geopolitical strength.     Russia can provide an existential guaranty to china in the later’s increasingly fraught and antagonistic relationship with the US, in addition Russia can provide china with interior lines of communication immune to western maritime interference to the most of Euroasia.   

China has money and products, and in many areas technology to offer russia, but nothing comparable to existential security and alternate world access immune to rival’s maritime power to offer to Russia.

So I think most people are too focused on Russia’s comparative small economic and lack of competitive value added industry and service, and underestimate russia’s geopolitical strength and potential  that she has through her geography and nuclear arsenal.


It is late.  I will address the near term nuckear deterrence capability of china against the US in another post.