Russia and Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

How significant is Russia’s invasion? It has made the Swiss - the Swiss - re-visit their policy of neutrality. Not to the extent of joining NATO, but they’re considering working more closely with the alliance, even to the extent of backfilling munitions sent to Ukraine by NATO members.

That Switzerland is even considering this is an indication of how badly Putin read the room.

Boru

This is definitely the biggest blunder of his career. It's mystifying how someone raised on spycraft should have such poor insight.

I don’t really think so.  the only question regarding his judgement is whether there was a better way or opportunity for russia to attempt to reestablish hegemony over ukraine.   The fact that establishing this hegemony is of far greater and more durable import to russia than what the west can do to Russia short of nuclear war is beyond doubt.    Even if russia is defeated in ukraine, the long term consequences to russia, say in 25+ years, be no worse than if russia didn’t try, and if russia succeeds in making ukraine non-viable as state able to chose its own alignment, then russia would be in immeasurably stronger position in 25 years, all the blow back from the effort not withstanding.

So if Russia can succeed in making ukraine economically demographically non-viable as a state with ability to chose its own economic and geopolitical alignment, then finland and sweden joining NATO is a trivial price to pay.   if russia fails, then in 25 years russia will be a marginal player more or less irrelevant to europe and it would makes no difference to russia whether Sweden or Finland is part of NATO or not.

That is without considering the fact that given shift in centers of economic abs geopolitical gravity in Eurasia to the Asia Pacific, the transient euphoria of short term unity not withstanding, NATO remains an anachronism and will likely fade into irrelevance anyway in 25 years.