Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

I don’t really think so.  If Russia can succeed in making ukraine economically demographically non-viable as a state with ability to chose its own economic and geopolitical alignment, then finland and sweden joining NATO is a trivial price to pay.

Big "if" there.

ETA: You're going to need more than one edit to repair this flawed hypothesis.

Making Ukraine beholden to Russia is foundational to Russia’s status as a great Euroasia power.  taking the long view, say 100 years, of durable foundations of Russia’s position in the world, keeping sway over ukraine is hugely more important to Russia than the blow back in the form of sanctions and temporary diplomatic alienation from a west that is beholden to a hegemon whose priority had been on dismantling the foundations of russia geopolitical power.

lol, you've got to try to look 100 years into the future to find a way to rescue this idiotic decision.

As for America wanting to "dismantle" the foundations of Russia, well, that's bullshit, but you keep telling yourself otherwise.

given rapid changes in world alignment and shifting balance between centers of economic and military power, short term euphoria not withstanding,  NATO is a anachronism.  In 10-15 years it will recede into irrelevance as major powers makes adjustments to new reality that center of contest is shifting to the pacific, and the real economic and political self interests of classic NATO members is sharply different from those of new eastern european additions to NATO.  so if Russia gets hold of Ukrainian black sea coast, Russian influence over ukraine will almost certainly be far more durable than the coalition momentarily assembled in reflexive fury over its hull in making the effort.

Putin needs to survive this growing disaster first. Sezing the Black Sea coast would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine, but Russia looks like it's got its hands full in the Donets Basin.

Russia's star has been on the wane for a couple of decades now, and this is Putin raging against history. Problem is, he picked a porcupine to kick, and as a result the damage to his country is largely self-inflicted ... and will certainly be long-lasting, your overly optimistic hopes aside.

As for NATO's irrelevance, your boy Putin's idiocy has given it another 20-30 years of relevance. What a fool.