Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

And -- who's going to retrain those reservists? The same guys who trained the first wave? Where are those guys right now?

I don't believe this represents any increase in Russian combat power. I believe this represents the Russians threatening a longer war in the hopes of wearing out Western support. But I think it will fail because without redirecting their doctrine and training they will simply be sending more troops into the shooting gallery -- even as the West is sending more arty, and training Ukrainians to fly F-16s, and now pondering the supply of older Abrams tanks.

In short, it's a move borne out of both fear and optics. It's also a big gamble in that the protests will widen and Putin's popularity will wane further. In essence, I think Putin is staking his regime on this war with this move. I think it's throwing good money after bad. He's scared and feeling cornered.

My guess is that Putin wants a long war.  The Russians are not dumb, as they have had their share of Nobel winners and chess grandmasters; fact is that the Russian army sucks, and Putin & Friends know this.  Fighting against Ukraine with its modern Western weapons is allowing Russia to develop and enhance their weaponry.  In addition, Putin wants Trump back in power, and having an extended war will make the World economy sag and Biden look bad.

[Bolding added -- Thump]

While I agree with most of what you write, I'd take issue with this point. Uralvagonzavod has largely ceased production, devoting what resources they have to repairing the many battle-damaged tanks. As of July, they had laid off approximately half of their workforce. The Russians have lost two major warships and six or seven cargo vessels or small patrol boats. They've burnt through most of their stockplie of PGMs.

And with sanctions in place they will not be able to replace these losses any time soon, I don't think. Remember, they've now got 300,000 more soldiers to feed, clothe, and equip.

Beyond that, the Russians have always had decent R&D for their gear, so I'm not sure how much this war will advance their weapons-development.