Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

It also makes sense when you realize that if we're living in the upside down where russian -can- win..it's still costly for them.  Turns out, for example, that ukraines casualty trackers aren;t far off the mark - according to death benefits publicly announced by russia.

That's why Russia will win; they will pay whatever price in men and/or materials that it will take.  Putin is in no hurry.  The last I heard is that Ukraine is beginning to suffer heavy causalities; of course, they want more weapons.

It took the Afghans -- much less well-prepared, equipped, and organized -- eight years to send the Soviets packing.

Even if Russia's army wins a decisive military victory on the field, and Ukraine surrenders, there will still be an insurgency that the Russians will have to walk away from unless they want to break their own country.

I disagree with the premise that the Russians will win no matter what Ukraine or the West does. The scanty supports you've given thus far for that premise are unconvincing to me. The Russians have just seen their A-team hustled off the battlefield by a force which can very quickly move fast and cope with rapidly changing battle conditions. Russian industry is hamstrung by sanctions; Russians troops do not seem to have any confidence in their mission, and thus have lower morale.

War is not just about numbers. There are several intangibles (leadership, morale, motivation, training to name some) that are very difficult to quantify but can be decisive. The Ukrainians seem to have the edge in many of these. There are also many tangible but still hard-to-understand factors like types of weapons used, planning at the operational level, and how weather will affect ops. The Russians strike me as deficient in many of these tangible factors, too.

So I don't really buy into the "Russians can keep it up as long as they want."