Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

I am a layperson, and, speaking as a layperson, I think that Ukraine has lasted as long as it has due to Western weapons, and, especially, Western intelligence.

I'm former Air Force, which qualifies as former military to some folks. My opinion is that the Western weapons have played something of a role -- especially the arty and MLRS-type systems giving the Ukrainians range to reach the Russian rear areas -- and Western intelligence has probably played an important role in Ukrainian planning and deployments.

But, and this is a big but, the Ukrainians have three intangibles strongly in their favor: planning (including logistics), leadership (especially in their willingness to devolve authority to junior officers and NCOs, but including their president as well), and the morale and motivation of their troops who are doing the fighting.

Weapons are only as useful as the soldiers who deploy them. The motivations of troops on both sides in this war matter, and I believe that's where you'll see the biggest differences. Remember, the Ukrainians are still fielding and fighting leftover Soviet-era tanks and airplanes. They have gotten a lot of MANPADS, MANPATS, and some artillery including MLRSes from the West, along with a few SPAAGs, but no major SAM systems, no frontline aircraft, no long-range missiles/rockets. The Ukrainians are fighting the Russians, in short, with much the same equipment the Russians are deploying -- and much of that is older.

Keep that in mind while you argue that the West is prolonging the war. I personally believe it's the Ukrainian fighting men and women who are the main impetus behind this prolongation, and that's because they're fighting for home and hearth, kith and kin; they're fighting for survival.

It's also because they're trained and led better. At this point, they probably have better unit-cohesion as well, as the Russians have slapped together the remnants of the Kyiv debacle to pursue victory in the Donbas. That didn't work out so well, which was fairly predictable.

What are the Russians soldiers fighting for? They just want to survive a war that won't benefit them in any way. How is their training? We're seeing fresh conscripts captured six days, and some less, after being inducted. How is their leadership? It's a very top-heavy system that punishes local initiative, and that's been baked into their doctrine for at least seven decades if not longer. Logistics and planning in general? Horribly bad. Based on false assumptions about Ukrainian will, saddled with weak organic supply resources at the divisional and regimental levels, and clearly lacking depth in terms of how to deal with defeat. All of that is not lost on Russian soldiers.