Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

True 60,000 troops is still  60,000 troops and Ukraine would be foolish to simply ignore such a threat but I don't think it will ultimately shift Russia's fortunes in the overall war and will be as you said before a distraction as Putin scrambles to find some actual soldiers and yes these missile strikes seem to be about morale and it will likely fail as it's nothing new and has historically only galvanized a populous. Pity Mr. Putin for all his bluster about The Patriotic War doesn't seem to have read a lot about it and seems intent on repeating mistakes from that era.

1) Putin galvanized the populace in 2014, I believe. Further bombardment will likely only increase Ukrainian intransigence.

2) Posing a threat from Belarus won't change anything except internal Ukrainian deployments, and those not much, because it's safe to assume they keep the capital guarded well anyway and sit at the center of the road and rail nets. It won't stop the Ukrainians from pursuing the offensive east and south, though it might perhaps slow those Ukrainian advances, which is I think the main Russian goal in this, buying breathing room. This threat won't interdict any supply-lines, absent a spectacular success that they couldn't achieve in March this last year. With mud season coming up once again -- and that's what scuppered the March drive on Kyiv in large part -- this current move looks more like posing than actually-sound strategy.

Even if they do launch, they now will have one more supply-line to maintain. Now Russia has to supply 60,000 more troops far away from their other concentrations. Given their problems with logistics heretofore, I don't see this move as threat, but more like bluster.

But for political reasons, it won't go forward, I don't think. Russia's recent defeats have likely made Belarusians even more wary of involvement. In short I think it's a dog-and-pony show.