Russia and Ukraine

[Belacqua]

1) Russia and China have always been rivals. They have very deep conflicts with one another.
2) China cares more about itself than it cares about Russia. There is no ideological partnership between the two.

They're not in lockstep, that's for sure. On the other hand they can work together when it suits them. Ideology tends to get downplayed when both sides can make money.

Recent American actions are working hard to push Russia and China closer together. As US firms pull out of Russia, China is happy to take up the slack. Chinese financial services, like electronic payment services, are now popular in Russia and are gaining ground in other areas as well.

American efforts to hold back Chinese development of their high-tech sector is also having unintended consequences. For example Germany has announced that it has no intention to follow America's orders to turn their back on Chinese products which would help them. Just another small step in former partners discovering that obedience to America is not in their own interests. 

As more countries find that the US is an unreliable partner which only works for the benefit of the US, it only strengthens alliances among other countries. It looks as though Saudi Arabia, for example, will join the BRICS nations. That's a significant realignment.

3) China is not doing so well either. With Xi-Chi-Ping being elected for a third term in office there is a strong possibility that this country will suffer Russia-like instabilities in the future and perhaps even resort to a war with Taiwan in order to focus the public’s attention elsewhere. The China Miracle of the 00’s and the 10’s seems to have come to an end. Still I hope for a smoother transition than Russia’s for that country of 2 Billion citizens.

Here we have to be especially wary, because Anglophone propaganda concerning China is even more blatant than that against Russia. 

What is the evidence that Xi's election will cause "Russia-like" instabilities? What is the evidence that its rapidly expanding economy has ended its rise? 

Millions have been lifted out of poverty, and life expectancy is now longer than that of the US. 

Xi is popular at home. Is there any sort of large-scale movement in China that will cause us to worry about a "smoother transition"? Smoother transition from what to what? 

The Taiwan situation is unfortunate, and it's pretty certain that not everyone will get what he wants. It will only result in a major war, however, if the US gets involved. 

China plans for a longer game than the US, and they also have a longer memory. How many Americans know that there were US soldiers among the troops which sacked the Forbidden City in 1900 and carried away anything they could. If you go to the Asian art department of a US museum, chances are that the collection was begun due to this looting. How many know that John Jacob Astor became a multi-millionaire by breaking Chinese import bans and dealing drugs to China, ruining many many lives? Chinese people remember this. History, plus recent US efforts to harm China's economy, push the BRICS countries closer together, making the US less relevant. 

A cold winter in Europe, when everyone knows it's the US that made energy prices go through the roof, will not make the US more popular.