(October 17, 2022 at 7:03 pm)Belacqua Wrote:(October 17, 2022 at 4:04 pm)Leonardo17 Wrote: 1) Russia and China have always been rivals. They have very deep conflicts with one another.
2) China cares more about itself than it cares about Russia. There is no ideological partnership between the two.
They're not in lockstep, that's for sure. On the other hand they can work together when it suits them. Ideology tends to get downplayed when both sides can make money.
Recent American actions are working hard to push Russia and China closer together. As US firms pull out of Russia, China is happy to take up the slack. Chinese financial services, like electronic payment services, are now popular in Russia and are gaining ground in other areas as well.
American efforts to hold back Chinese development of their high-tech sector is also having unintended consequences. For example Germany has announced that it has no intention to follow America's orders to turn their back on Chinese products which would help them. Just another small step in former partners discovering that obedience to America is not in their own interests.
As more countries find that the US is an unreliable partner which only works for the benefit of the US, it only strengthens alliances among other countries. It looks as though Saudi Arabia, for example, will join the BRICS nations. That's a significant realignment.
Quote:3) China is not doing so well either. With Xi-Chi-Ping being elected for a third term in office there is a strong possibility that this country will suffer Russia-like instabilities in the future and perhaps even resort to a war with Taiwan in order to focus the public’s attention elsewhere. The China Miracle of the 00’s and the 10’s seems to have come to an end. Still I hope for a smoother transition than Russia’s for that country of 2 Billion citizens.
Here we have to be especially wary, because Anglophone propaganda concerning China is even more blatant than that against Russia.
What is the evidence that Xi's election will cause "Russia-like" instabilities? What is the evidence that its rapidly expanding economy has ended its rise?
Millions have been lifted out of poverty, and life expectancy is now longer than that of the US.
Xi is popular at home. Is there any sort of large-scale movement in China that will cause us to worry about a "smoother transition"? Smoother transition from what to what?
The Taiwan situation is unfortunate, and it's pretty certain that not everyone will get what he wants. It will only result in a major war, however, if the US gets involved.
China plans for a longer game than the US, and they also have a longer memory. How many Americans know that there were US soldiers among the troops which sacked the Forbidden City in 1900 and carried away anything they could. If you go to the Asian art department of a US museum, chances are that the collection was begun due to this looting. How many know that John Jacob Astor became a multi-millionaire by breaking Chinese import bans and dealing drugs to China, ruining many many lives? Chinese people remember this. History, plus recent US efforts to harm China's economy, push the BRICS countries closer together, making the US less relevant.
A cold winter in Europe, when everyone knows it's the US that made energy prices go through the roof, will not make the US more popular.
1)
a) Even in Soviet times Mao had his distance with Stalin. I think there are still regions that are disputed between the two countries since the 19th century.
b) That was the rhetoric before the Ukraine war. No one wanted to “push Russia into the arms of China” (I didn’t agree with that idea even than). I don’t know about the Chinese banking system. I have heard that that are aiming to rival the western system in the future (or at least this is what is being said). But Hey. There are Russians in my country. And the last Turkish bank to accept payments from Russian banks has stopped to do so. So I don’t know how.
- But I can tell you one thing: There was a nice pair of shoes in a nice shop that I really seemed to like. But I didn’t take them. If Chinese investment companies come to my country someday. I seriously intend to avoid them as much as I can.
c) There are no restriction on Chinese products in the world now at any level. That’s why China cannot afford to attack Taiwan. They are not as “robust” as the Russians. With 20 % of the economic sanctions that is imposed on Russia now, China returns to the times before Deng Xiao Ping.
d) Well. They have my blessing. Murdering dissident journalists in Istanbul, backing the Taliban and Al-Qaida. Financing political Islam all over the world. While I don’t believe they could afford to do as you say. I would wish them the best of luck if they really chose to do so.
2)
a) There can’t be “propaganda” where there is free press. I am the one who choses my sources of information. It doesn’t come from the British or American state. Media is all over the world. But I don’t include sputnik News or Fox New to this mix. So I am my own propaganda. And I am not saying any thing like that.
And question: If this “World war Z” is really happening. Why don’t you enlist and be a part of this heroic movement?
Or let me put it another way: Why don’t you tell your parents and tell them you are joining Putin’s movement to free the world of Western imperialism (and see their reaction). Just see if they are happily taking you to these buses in Moscow and wave their handkerchief after you with a proud smile on their faces. (You said you really believed this. I didn’t)
b) There are many debates and information on the subject in “western” media channels. It’s a huge power we are talking about but the summarize: I - Covid restrictions are not ending because Chine refuses the Pfizer vaccines that are being offered by the west. II – GIP Growth is at its slowest percentage since 40 years. III – unemployment and economic difficulties within the country is increasing. IV – The youth is looking to study and live abroad if they can, and if they can’t, they’re not willing to have kids (which I don’t see as a bad news at all they already have 2 billion people right?)
c) Stop making threats via the internet. I’d rather have a full scale nuclear war than to live in an Orwellian type of society that is promoted by China. Again: It’s not only Taiwan. Than it will the pacific, than Buthan and Nepal, Than Mongolia, Than Korea, Than Japan, everybody knows how empires operate. No one can let that happen. Yes. The Taiwanese are Chinese (I had a Taiwanese friend once, and I knew his family). There are a part of China. Like Hong-Kong. But look what they did in Hong Kong. We value our right of free speech, we (I) believe in the universal nature of the bill of human rights (Let’s go back in time and let’s debate that if you want), we believe in democratically elected governments that we can change with an election when we don’t like them rather than governments using brutal force to maintain their hold on power no matter the cost in human lives. And that’s why my government accepted at some point, to send its young peasant boys to the other end of the world, to support the creation of what we are calling South-Korea today. If they hadn’t, There would be only Kim-Jong-Un in the Korean Peninsula today.
And what matters is not what we say. The Taiwanese don’t want it. Just as the Ukrainians don’t want Russia. And dictators are beings who are unable to see this. Will they make nuclear threats?
Well: think of the teenagers in Iran whose entire bone are being broken before being thrown down by the top of a building by “The guardians of Islam”. Go and ask them if they are scared of nuclear threats. So you really like fire-works? I don’t think you do. But even if you did, you can’t have my right to decide for my own future and have control over my own body and my own destiny in return for you having what you believe to be “power” and letting me live the life of the average north Korean citizen. Of course I won’t let you. And you’re not the only one with a gun here. Try to remember that too before you make apocalyptic speeches and threaten the whole world with complete annihilation.
c) and d). Yes. As long as China remain a rational and intelligent player in the world, all of us are willing to cooperate. And of course I am happy to see that population becoming a more modern society. All I am saying is that there has to be a point in which they start adopting some values of freedom as well. And I think they are already doing it. And on this point: India is also a model. India is also a country with 2 Billion citizens. And they don’t have an authoritarian government. And their literacy is increasing. Their Economy is booming. Their Military (and Navy) is also getting stronger. – And that’s what I mean with “there is no polarity anymore”. This is not the 70’s or the 80’s. There are many poles in the world. Everyone is doing its bit. Some (Like Russia) are overtly disrupting the order of things and are using it as a weapon of war. And because no one really likes it (including China) I can predict you right now, that without a change of attitude, and despite nuclear threats, Russia is set to give up Crimea as well (or that’s my personal prediction I would say).
e) I already answered to the first part. You cannot believe everything that is said by China. But with the current economic situation, they may very well not be able to become the world’s first economy by 2030 (or at least that is what is being said). What I say is that between 2000 and 2020 China was seen as a rational and competitive actor in global markets. If they switch themselves to megalomaniac phantasies (like Russia) as I said, everything can change relatively fast. And this wouldn’t be good for the rest of the world either.
Second part: You are talking about the age of imperialism. Than I can remind you that Russian, French, Italian and British armies tried to divided Turkey among themselves in the beginning of the Century with Greek trying to annihilate us completely (and Soviets offering a small amount of financial and military aid for “fighting imperialism” purpose). I mean the past is the Past and the present is the present. It’s all over now. Remembering is one thing hating is another thing. So the Chinese should remember those days. But if the communist party is using these event to foster an ideology of hatred and will to take revenge etc. It won’t work for the Chinese people above all. They, in the memory of the Chinese people, will be remembered as exactly as what they are and they will have to live with it.
So that’s what I mean by being rational. No one wants chaos in the world’s second biggest economy. China is a major player in the world economy. So they are the ones who will have to determine what are the most appropriate steps. Trying to invade Taiwan is not among those appropriate steps. That I can tell you looking from here with my non-political scientist brain. That’s totally obvious
Last: It's Russia who cut the Gas to Europe (for reparation purpose) And evryone knows it was probably their submarines who torpedoes the gasprom 1 pipeline.
You guys are living in the clouds. You guys are angels. (forgive me for that. By this I mean, "people who live in a paralel universe" - that is not the same as our universe -
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