From ISW:
Given this dynamic, I don't think Putin can afford to negotiate much if at all, as it will look like backtracking on his fundamental war aims, thus making him look weak in the eyes of the Russian public as well as these Kadyrovites, Wagnerites, and the milbloggers there. Surrendering their territorial seizures would make Putin's war look worse than useless -- and likely endanger his regime's survival.
Quote:Putin is having a harder time appeasing parts of the highly ideological pro-war constituency due to his military’s inability to deliver his maximalist goals of overthrowing the Ukrainian government and seizing all of Ukraine, as ISW has previously assessed.[2] Putin’s nationalist-leaning propagandists such as Vladimir Solovyov are increasingly demanding that the Kremlin and higher military command to fully commit to their goals in Ukraine, and Solovyov even called for full mobilization and the firing of incompetent officials following the Russian surrender of Kherson City.[3] Select milbloggers have previously criticized Putin for his failure to respond to the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge on October 9, while others noted that Putin has failed to uphold the ideology of Russian superiority since 2014.[4] Direct criticism of Putin within the pro-war community is almost unprecedented, and Dugin’s high-profile and unhinged attack on Putin may indicate a shift among the Russian nationalist ideologues.[5] Putin needs to retain the support of this community and has likely ordered some of his propagandists to suppress any critiques of the Russian withdrawal from Kherson City, since many state TV news programs have been omitting or downplaying the aftermath of withdrawal.[6] The ever-increasing doubts among extreme Russian nationalists about Putin’s commitment to Russian ideology reduce Putin’s appeal to the nationalist community, while mobilization and high casualties will likely continue to upset members of the Russian society.
Given this dynamic, I don't think Putin can afford to negotiate much if at all, as it will look like backtracking on his fundamental war aims, thus making him look weak in the eyes of the Russian public as well as these Kadyrovites, Wagnerites, and the milbloggers there. Surrendering their territorial seizures would make Putin's war look worse than useless -- and likely endanger his regime's survival.
