Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

As much as I'd like to agree with you, I think there's another human wave or two coming. News has been, on the backburner, about conscripts training in Belorus. I don't think that will get much Russian steamrolling going on, but all the same UAF frontline troops will have to fight them off.

I suspect that both sides are piecemealing forces into the Bakhmut region in order to build up reserves for planned offensives, and it's a race to see who feels the jump-off point first -- and do they go too soon or too late?

At this stage, after the clear Ukrainian victories in the autumn, it looks to me like both sides are trying to angle for advantage. The Ukrainians have to race against large, untrained forces assaulting them, and the Russians have to race against inflowing supplies of armor and ammo.

I think the leadership, both theater and small-unit, will make the difference, and I think the Ukrainians have the advantage in both aspects. But both sides are tired and husbanding units, is my sense, for what that's worth.

All excellent points. But I just don't think the Russians have it in them. I'm sure they will take what forces they can muster and launch an attack but I don't think it will be a large-scale offensive nor do I think the Russians have the patience to wait for the recruits I honestly think Putin is going to try and use the propaganda victory of Soledar for a push soon because he knows he's also running the clock of the goodwill he's gotten at home over it and doesn't want it fading too quickly. This fits his pattern of short-term political gain even if it costs him in the long run military losses after all he has plenty of generals he can scapegoat for his failures. But those are just my thoughts.

I wish I shared your optimism, but I think that with his putting MoD on the hook they'll wait a little until the troops training in Belorus can be moved into reserve for a punch. They won't launch a large-scale assault until the have the bullet-catchers ready for it. I do think defeat awaits him on the other end simply because the Ukrainians are more motivated and seem to have better leadership, especially on the small-unit level, which is really important.

That being said, being overwhelmed by a mass of bodies has happened before and can happen here.