Russia and Ukraine

[Belacqua]

The Western world, led by the US, is trying to stop the war by returning to the previous status quo, where Ukraine retains its pre-war borders.... ideally including Crimea.

It looks as though the "Western world" may not be as enthusiastic as some might wish.

Bloomberg is reporting today that different countries are having trouble fulfilling their promises to send tanks. It turns out that the promised numbers aren't available, or will need extensive repairs. They're saying that April looks doable, which probably means September. 

As I pointed out before, promises like this have a tendency to weaken over time. 

Polls show that the number of Americans who want to send weapons is decreasing.

Also Bloomberg and several other sources, including some in Ukraine and Poland, are saying that Ukraine is fast running short of ammunition. They're begging for more, while at least one NATO official is telling them they ought to shoot less. The Ukrainians have lowered the age of conscription to 16, and every day there are new videos of military-age men getting snatched off the streets and taken against their will to fight. This is not sustainable. 

As I've said, time and numbers are on Russia's side. Despite what's been alleged for a long time, they still have plenty of weapons. 

The anti-Russia enthusiasm will continue to wane, I think. Europe needs their gas and oil. Nobody really has the stomach for the kind of protracted conflict that would result from a constant drip-drip of weapons sent to Ukraine. Nor does anybody want the kind of full-on nuclear exchange that would put an end to it. Germany, for example, is very aware that they are paying a far higher price for this war than the US is, and they are likely to want that to stop. 

It will be interesting to see what happens to Zelensky. Remember that many American favorites who were useful temporarily regretted it in the end. Saddam Hussein, for example, was happy to take US weapons all the time he was helping the US to weaken Iran. But he didn't stay a favorite forever. Fortunately for Zelensky he has millions socked away in foreign accounts, as the Panama Papers showed, so he may be able to retire comfortably in a safer area, and buy some nice clothes for a change.