RE: Russia and Ukraine
March 16, 2023 at 9:18 am
(This post was last modified: March 16, 2023 at 9:21 am by Thumpalumpacus.)
(March 16, 2023 at 8:31 am)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Armchair generaling time. Western weapons are filtering in, and ukranian crews are just now either finishing training or about to. With the warm winter the mud never went away and it's estimated that conditions wont be amenable to a ca assault until sometime between mid april and late may. It's feasible that limited and low risk actions will occur in the interim..if, for no other reason, than live fire training for the new crews. What low hanging fruit do we think ukraine has a mind to snatch leading up to the crimean beach party this summer?
My money is on line of contact and artillery overwatch along the m14, where alot of the nightly ukranian strikes have been occurring for the past few weeks. Runs from rostov through mariupol and melitipol - along the narrow land bridge to the occupied south, opposite shore from ukraines latest mass drone attack. Crucially, it's good terrain for vehicles with lots of road web and isn't choked in mud and is far away from where russia has concentrated the majority of it;s troops with no convenient way to reposition quickly or unharrased, every inch already within the range of ukranian artillery. OTOH, it's in range of russian naval forces. An interruption anywhere along that line cuts crimea off from ground resupply outside of the kerch straight bridge. I suppose it's so obvious that we'd expect russia to have some sort of plan - but it's only so obvious because russia is in a seriously bad position there.
I've long thought that to be the most useful axis. I think that is a major objective deserving of a full effort. Reaching the coast may put the Ukrainians in range of the Russian navy, but it also puts the Azov Sea under Ukrainian missiles. They would also be able to attack the Kerch bridge with their naval drones, and perhaps even drop a full span. Such a move reaps all the benefits you mention, and let's face it, the loss of Crimea would almost certainly follow, dooming Russia's war aims once and for all.
I think while waiting for the ground to dry up, the Ukrainians should start working troops in the north to flank the Russians at Bakhmut. Posing a threat there to them -- with their troops worn out, combat power eroded, and morale apparently in the shitter -- would not only make some military sense, it would also prep the ground for a descent from the north, which would keep the Russians guessing about which shoe is going to drop where, just as in August when the Ukrainians made lots of noise about the south but then unleashed the eastern offensive with its terrific results.
My two cents, worth every penny you've paid for it.