Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

We of course know that Russia will lose and will gain nothing for all the trouble they have caused. That's the only just outcome.

I'd like to agree, but the fact is that Ukraine can possibly lose. On a rational analytic level, they may be forced to negotiate, which in one sense would be a defeat, but it's also possible that given the demonstrated performance characteristics of the two combatting armies Ukrainian force may well hustle the Russians out of conquered territories. We just don't know.

I personally believe that the Ukrainians have three big factors working for them:

1) Morale: the Ukrainians not only know why they're fighting, but they have bought into the motivation. Motivated troops are a force-multiplier.

2) Leadership: Ukrainian leadership, especially in the autumn offensive, has shown itself to be both bold in planning, and diligent in logistics. We can't say the same for Russian leadership, which has shown itself leaden and concerned more about bureaucratese than results on the field.

3) While the Russians have already expended the cream of their forces and equipment, and are now digging into old tanks, old guns, prison conscripts, and old rifles, the Ukrainians are receiving newer equipment and training on it manned by fighters who have already been indoctrinated in the concept of NCOs being the linchpin of an operation.

The Russians may still have the larger numbers and resources. And that means they can still issue some hurt. Whether enough to make a difference at any negotiating table, hard to say.

And even if the UAF fail and get blown apart ... you've still got Russia in a quagmire insurrection fueled by the seeds of hatred that they themselves have sown. There is literally no victory narrative for them except for a deux ex machina intervention by superpower negotiations, or Russia going first with nukes, which won't happen.

China has already shown that it is playing the middle and looking for its own interests first. They will happily let Russia twist in the wind and pick up the scraps where and when they can. They already know that Russia has hit its sundown.