RE: Russia and Ukraine
May 10, 2023 at 3:06 am
(This post was last modified: May 10, 2023 at 3:11 am by Thumpalumpacus.)
I don't see this current situation as being terribly exhausting to America. I agree with Paul Kennedy that imperial overstretch and over-investment in military projects (which are notably unproductive at the national level) does more to weaken America. He wrote, in 1988, of the "oncoming multipolar world", which we are seeing unfold now. We Americans have passed our high-point in terms of global strategic impact, I think. But I'm pretty sure we're still relevant and will remain so for quite some time.
That's likely a thread all its own, but I think the strength of a nation is more accurately measured by economics, rather than the projection of force, unless you're actually shooting it out. That's the lure of militarism, and also its Achilles' Heel. It seems to me that like fascist Germany and impero-fascist Japan struggling to gain relevance, Russia is self-immolating in an attempt to remain relevant. Putin doesn't seem to understand the damage his gamble is doing to the country, and that whether they "win" or lose in Ukraine, these last fifteen months have cost them a couple of decades of sway astride the global stage ... in my humble opinion. Even if he "wins" here, Russia will likely be so reliant upon China economically and militarily as to be neutered. And that's exactly what he wasn't trying to project with this invasion.
That's likely a thread all its own, but I think the strength of a nation is more accurately measured by economics, rather than the projection of force, unless you're actually shooting it out. That's the lure of militarism, and also its Achilles' Heel. It seems to me that like fascist Germany and impero-fascist Japan struggling to gain relevance, Russia is self-immolating in an attempt to remain relevant. Putin doesn't seem to understand the damage his gamble is doing to the country, and that whether they "win" or lose in Ukraine, these last fifteen months have cost them a couple of decades of sway astride the global stage ... in my humble opinion. Even if he "wins" here, Russia will likely be so reliant upon China economically and militarily as to be neutered. And that's exactly what he wasn't trying to project with this invasion.
