RE: Russia and Ukraine
December 24, 2023 at 1:56 pm
(This post was last modified: December 24, 2023 at 2:25 pm by Anomalocaris.)
It should be noted that when an attacking force is able to break out from a mire in front of prepared defensive positions, that attacking force almost always enjoyed heavy superiority in numbers, in supporting artillery or air power over the defending force, and in addition always possess considerably more mobile strategic reserves further behind the front than the defending forces can call upon. Technical solution’s ability to make up for shortcomings in those areas are not nearly as great as those influenced by military fan fiction that glorify individual pieces of weaponry might think.
Ukraine with any conceivable western support short of indirect all out NATO Attack not only do not enjoy those advantages, it is quite on the wrong side of where these advantages lay throughout this conflict, even at the times when Russian effort seemed unremediably incompetent, The net balance of factors driving the final outcome was always heavily in Russia’s favor, whatever the west think the righteous outcome should be and however the west pretend the war is approaching that righteous outcome. The entire counterattack Ukraine conducted this year was a gross strategic blunder that could only have been justified if it could have dragged NATO directly into the war. If it failed in that, as it evidently had, its net result would inevitably be to put Ukraine much further into the red in both of these two strategic aspects.
Militarily, in terms of relative frontline strength able to take action in near term, and in terms of relative availability if strategic reserves, both trained and recruitable, Ukraine is now undoubtedly much worse off now than in June, when the current offensive began, or indeed any time since the initial Russian attack last year.
Ukraine with any conceivable western support short of indirect all out NATO Attack not only do not enjoy those advantages, it is quite on the wrong side of where these advantages lay throughout this conflict, even at the times when Russian effort seemed unremediably incompetent, The net balance of factors driving the final outcome was always heavily in Russia’s favor, whatever the west think the righteous outcome should be and however the west pretend the war is approaching that righteous outcome. The entire counterattack Ukraine conducted this year was a gross strategic blunder that could only have been justified if it could have dragged NATO directly into the war. If it failed in that, as it evidently had, its net result would inevitably be to put Ukraine much further into the red in both of these two strategic aspects.
Militarily, in terms of relative frontline strength able to take action in near term, and in terms of relative availability if strategic reserves, both trained and recruitable, Ukraine is now undoubtedly much worse off now than in June, when the current offensive began, or indeed any time since the initial Russian attack last year.
