(January 15, 2024 at 2:55 pm)BrianSoddingBoru4 Wrote:(January 15, 2024 at 2:34 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote: Just because it is Putin’s fevered dream doesn’t mean it is not likely to be true. And Putin has show himself to be a more sophisticated strategist whose plans didn’t depend solely on a single throw of the dice or a single measure of superiority, and are therefore more robust and can achieve favorable ends by different means in the face of different contingencies.
I don’t think Finlandization would work in Ukraine. Even if Russia could convince the Ukrainian government to go along (unlikely, but possible), the likely guerrilla war waged by the populace would exact an uncomfortably high price.
Boru
A truely finlandized Ukraine requires Ukrainians to be as unified, mature and sophisticated as the fins, and led by a government as intellectually honest about the reality of geopolitical power as the post war Finnish governments had been. The Ukrainians would not be in this position if they had any of these in any significant measure.
So a post war Ukraine would be ruled by a weak and corrupt government susceptible to Russian influence. A real finlandized government would retain its domestic political and economy autonomy by making sure the Russians didn’t feel it would constitute a security liability for Russia if Russia didn’t meddle in it.
