Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

The fact that the initial invasion went much more poorly, Russian forces proved much less capable, and adverse world reaction turned out to be  much stronger and more kinetic, than might have been hoped for didn’t prevent Russia from attaining a position to gain its core objective suggests he is a more sophisticated strategists than he is being given credit for.

A sophisticated strategists is not one who always wins or who is always right.    It is one who identified the core objective, and gains the core objective while accounting for the possibility of defeats and being wrong in other assumptions.

The only point that might be open to challenge is did he have to do this at all.  And I think he did, because NATO-ized Ukraine is truly intolerable to any Russia that would like to have geostrategic autonomy.

Putin's objective is the complete conquest and absorption of Ukraine. The fact that he so terribly misread the situation leading up to his invasion impugns his judgement. He completely misread Western seriousness even though we were publicly sharing intelligence about Russian troop concentrations before the war.

The fact that he had such a poor understanding of the combat value of his own army implies that his military leadership is lying to him about readiness. It may also imply their corruption.

The fact that his military leadership cobbled together such a dispersed, idiotic plan, to be carried out by forces unable to provide mutual support or a well-defined schwerpunkt impugns their competence -- though the firings and KIAs of general officers may have allowed others, more competent, to rise to leadership.

All in all, Putin showed a tenuous grasp on likely responses both in Ukraine and the West. It's pretty unimpressive, up there with Hitler thinking Britain would stay out in 1939, or the Japanese thinking the US would sue for peace.

I personally think he suffers from a glut of yes-men ass-kissers who are angling for position in the oncoming post-Putin Russian power struggle.