RE: Russia and Ukraine
August 8, 2024 at 8:22 pm
(This post was last modified: August 8, 2024 at 8:23 pm by Thumpalumpacus.)
I'd originally thought this was a raid or a recon-in-force, but I think I was wrong about that:
https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-forces...k-invasion
There's a lot more to read in the article, and plenty of links to videos posted on X as well -- it's worth a full look. From it, I gather that this could, again, be an attack to draw off Russian forces from their offensive operations to the south, or they may have probed and found a weak spot and are trying to cut the logistics between north and south fronts. Or it may be a spoiling attack against a buildup they detected. The fact they're supplying rotary air-ground support implies that Russian air defenses in this area are weak. I still don't think there's enough F-16s to take much advantage of it.
If the Ukrainians can build up the logistics for these forces, that both strengthens their ability to hold in place or even move forward, or at the least aid the withdrawal of these forces once their mission is deemed accomplished. But it's all reading tea-leaves right now.
I definitely like the opsec, as opposed to last year's telegraphing of the offensive. The Ukrainians have learned to mistrust the press. That's good.
Quote:Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, now in its third day, appears to be gaining steam. A source with direct knowledge of the operation told The War Zone that at least 2,000 Ukrainian troops have been deployed with more pouring in every day.
While the Russian Defense Ministry continues to maintain that its troops are holding the line against this offensive, some Russian military war correspondents say Ukrainian forces are fighting 20 miles north of the border, digging in at some locations and building up a logistics network to maintain the flow of personnel and equipment.
[...]
Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, the Russian MoD said they have the situation under control.
“Units of the Sever Group of Forces along with units of the Russian Federal Security Service continue to eliminate armed AFU formations in Sudzha and Korenevo districts of Kursk region immediately adjacent to the border between Russia and Ukraine,” the Russian MoD claimed on Telegram Thursday.
[...]
As the Kursk incursion steadily grows, Ukraine continues attacking neighboring Belgorod Oblast in Russia.
[...]
Ukraine has secured enough territory that its helicopters were seen flying in Kursk, normally something that would be unlikely for normal operations given how vulnerable they are to air defense systems.
9...0
Podlyaka added that “what initially looked like reconnaissance in force, by the second half of the day turned into a full-fledged battle in the area of the settlement of Ivnitsa, where the enemy’s mobile armored group has consolidated its position. The fighting has shifted to the next village of Kromskie Byki. This is already less than 30 km as the crow flies to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.”
[...]
Kotenek said Ukraine is pumping reinforcements into Kursk.
“The enemy continues to transfer infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, tanks and armored vehicles, including those made in the USA, to the territory of the Russian Federation from the adjacent territory.”
Sudzha “is lost for us as a whole,” the Native Sudzha Telegram channel wrote. “And this is a vital logistics hub. And the enemy is trying to play this advantage. From Sudzha there is also a road to the north, to Lgov. Along which he is also trying to advance.”
“In general, the situation is difficult and continues to worsen, despite the fact that the pace of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ advance has noticeably slowed,” Native Sudzha wrote. “But this is a consequence of the fact that only the 22nd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is advancing, and the ‘expansion of success’ reserves have not yet entered the battle.”
https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-forces...k-invasion
There's a lot more to read in the article, and plenty of links to videos posted on X as well -- it's worth a full look. From it, I gather that this could, again, be an attack to draw off Russian forces from their offensive operations to the south, or they may have probed and found a weak spot and are trying to cut the logistics between north and south fronts. Or it may be a spoiling attack against a buildup they detected. The fact they're supplying rotary air-ground support implies that Russian air defenses in this area are weak. I still don't think there's enough F-16s to take much advantage of it.
If the Ukrainians can build up the logistics for these forces, that both strengthens their ability to hold in place or even move forward, or at the least aid the withdrawal of these forces once their mission is deemed accomplished. But it's all reading tea-leaves right now.
I definitely like the opsec, as opposed to last year's telegraphing of the offensive. The Ukrainians have learned to mistrust the press. That's good.