(March 22, 2025 at 3:13 pm)AFTT47 Wrote:(March 22, 2025 at 7:32 am)Jackalope Wrote: TSLA is, essentially, a meme stock. It certainly doesn't trade on fundamentals or an expectation of future earnings. It's all hype and cult of personality with only slightly more substance than crypto relative to its valuation.
I disagree. It certainly does trade on the expectations of future earnings. What's debatable is how realistic those expectations are. If Tesla solves the self-driving thing and if they are successful in getting the Optimus robot to perform useful tasks, the expectations may be realistic. If not, Tesla is in for a crash - even without Elon Musk's rise to the status of one of the world's premier assholes.
This is the argument I have seen against the Tesla board outing Elon Musk. He is seen as the guy who brings the magic. There's still plenty of people who believe in him. Without him, Tesla is just another car company. An innovative one to be sure but with nowhere near the upside to justify the stock price. So the Tesla board doesn't want to risk it.
I think they're fucked either way. They can't continue to absorb the hits they're taking now and I don't see people stopping hating Elon Musk. The only thing I see saving them is if they finally solve full self-driving and do it very soon.
I would consider those expectations maybe reasonable at around 150/share. I wouldn't bet on their ability to deliver a feature that they've failed to deliver so far. Trade ins are on the rise and new sales are down YOY in many markets.
They're fucked.
At 250-500, it's a bad joke IMHO.
