US Strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

[Paleophyte]

Just like in the kidnapping of Nicholas Maduro, I think that military advisors to D. Trump are doing a pretty good job.

You mean that it was a violation of US and International law for no sane reason that utterly failed to improve the situation in Venezuela, the USA, or the world at large? Yup, there are some striking similarities.

You can compare this to Dr. Fauci during the Covid crisis.

The way that, despite having one of the greatest experts in the field, Trump managed to shit the bed and get millions of people killed? That sort of comparison?

I note that you still aren't making any predictions. Three months into this three-day conflict and we have yet more fighting in the Strait of Hormuz. No prospect of peace. No improvement in conditions for those living in Iran. Ayatollahs empowered. Gas prices 50% above what they were six months ago. Oil prices double what they were six months ago. And the real pain hasn't even arrived yet. We're still running on strategic reserves of petroleum. When this crisis finally draws those down we'll see real shortages.

Here's my outlook, from least to most horrifying:

• TACO: Trump gives it up as a bad job, hoping that everybody will just forget about it, and leaving the Middle East a complete mess for years. The Ayatollahs do a few victory laps before opening the Strait as a toll highway. I view this as unlikely since it isn't Trump that'll be doing the dying in any of the other scenarios. We might see oil prices ease by Christmas.
  
• Stalemate: What we have now, give or take. The Strait remains closed to all but a trickle of traffic. Given the utter lack of political support for any solution, this seems likely. Suffering continues on all sides. This probably isn't sustainable for anybody, so it'll break sooner or later.
  
• Chinese Buy-out: The Chinese finally get annoyed that the US is fucking up their economy and uses its political pressure and military might to open the Straits without the US. This would put the Straits under Chinese control and sideline the US as an international power. Personally, I think that Xi is too smart to get embroiled in this mess, but if the oil shortages get too painful that might change. I'd like to think that the EU might try something similar, but I don't think that they have either the political will or the military power.
  
• Boots on the Ground: The US lands a few tens of thousands of troops in Iran. The death toll is appalling for everybody involved. Personally, this one doesn't seem likely to me. Too much risk for Trump. He'd have no qualms letting a lot of American soldiers die for his stupidity if it wasn't going to blow back on him politically.
  
• The Nuclear Option: In a state of panicked madness with midterms looming, oil prices rising, and support collapsing, Trump does the unthinkable. This doesn't seem plausible at the moment, but if the situation gets a lot worse, then this could become a bigger worry.
  

There. That's what the future looks like without rose-coloured glasses. If you think differently, then make a prediction of your own and learn how naive you are.