(June 16, 2026 at 1:43 am)Angrboda Wrote:Quote:The US and Iran have agreed to stop fighting and to open the Strait of Hormuz. Everything else is being kicked down the road over 60 days of ceasefire and beyond.
Given that the Strait was open before the conflict was started by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, reopening it is no great achievement. It simply restores the status quo ante bellum.
After a war that has cost an estimated $30bn, killed thousands and destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars worth of US military hardware, have any of Trump's declared objectives been fulfilled?
Five big nos
• No on Iran's nuclear programme: both the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and its enrichment project are to be discussed over the coming weeks. It remains far from obliterated.
• No to changing the regime: Ayatollah Khamenei and a slew of top-ranking commanders have been killed but have been replaced by even more hardline figures, apparently in no mood to compromise.
• No to helping the Iranian people who rose up against their government. If anything, the war has strengthened Iran's leadership, particularly if it benefits from sanctions relief as part of this deal, which seems more than likely.
• No to destroying Iran's ballistic missile arsenal. America's self-styled bombastic 'Secretary of War' had claimed it had largely been neutralised; US intelligence estimates 70% of Iran's missiles remain serviceable.
• No to reining in Iran's proxies. These are not part of any deal, it seems, for now at least.
Trump's supporters will point out that Iran's military has been massively degraded.
His lieutenants are fond of saying most of its navy is at the bottom of the sea. But not where it counts. Iran's naval potency has remained intact in the Strait of Hormuz, giving the Iranians leverage they could only have dreamt of before.
Iran's air force has been destroyed, but it was largely obsolescent anyway.
A huge number of Iran's IRGC and military bases have also been taken out, but their occupants have survived and remain firmly in control of the country.
https://news.sky.com/story/trumps-iran-w...y-13554425
In summary, the war made the US weaker, and Iran has been able to tie its national security to international security which puts it in a stronger position than before the war.
I'm no geopolitical strategist but to me, that adds up to a win for Iran.
Boru
‘I can’t be having with this.’ - Esmeralda Weatherwax
