(June 30, 2012 at 2:43 am)Moros Synackaon Wrote: Explain why Assad is "toast".
I see that he now has every reason to use any means to fight the rebels, especially given that Russian and the US are deadlocked over dealing with it, and, as Chuck pointed out, Turkey has no reason to visibly upset the power balance between the US and Russia. This means he might become more entrenched and has a better chance of surviving the revolt, if only through the knowledge that he must succeed or die like Gaddhafi.
Assad and toast: Wishful thinking on my part and not necessarily informed prognostication. I prefer his ouster to the alternative. I also recognize that his ouster does not guarantee a 'better' fate for the people of Syria, but it would present an opportunity for reform.
Russia's interest and resulting military equipment support seems to be motivated by the never ending quest to maintain a warm water port. U.S. and other western nations support for the rebels seems to be driven by the continued vainglorious mission to forceably spread democracy.
I agree with your take on Turkey not wanting to upset the Russia/U.S. power balance, but Turkey along with Lebanon and Jordan will have to seriously take a stance to address the refugee issue, particularly if the conflict escalates to a full blown civil war.
