RE: Tensions Rise Between China and Japan
August 20, 2012 at 4:46 pm
(This post was last modified: August 20, 2012 at 4:57 pm by Anomalocaris.)
Japan's nightmare is an isolated Japan facing a stronger Chinese navy. Japan wants to hold on to the disputed island to better strategically contain any future Chinese blue water fleet. China wants the islands because china wants to break through the ring of Japanese held islands stretching from the main Japanese Islands almost all the way to Taiwan.
The irony is although China and Taiwan hate each other quite a bit, they hate the Japanese more. Both sides would rather see the disputed islands in each other's hands than in Japan's. So the dispute between China and Japan also becomes a dispute between Japan and Taiwan, and serves to drive Taiwan and China closer.
If Taiwan because close to China, that China de facto breaks through the ring of Japanese islands via Taiwan. Even more nightmarish for Japan is the prospect of a Chinese naval base right on the pacific coast of Taiwan, where there would be no possibility for Japanese to contain the Chinese navy from going whereever it wants.
So Japan must keep the island to prevent the Chinese from breaking out into the pacific and threaten Japan with a naval blockade. However, keeping the island threatens to drive Taiwan into China's arms. That would potentially allow China to break out into the pacific far more unstoppably than just taking away a couple of virtually uninhabited islands in dispute.
The irony is although China and Taiwan hate each other quite a bit, they hate the Japanese more. Both sides would rather see the disputed islands in each other's hands than in Japan's. So the dispute between China and Japan also becomes a dispute between Japan and Taiwan, and serves to drive Taiwan and China closer.
If Taiwan because close to China, that China de facto breaks through the ring of Japanese islands via Taiwan. Even more nightmarish for Japan is the prospect of a Chinese naval base right on the pacific coast of Taiwan, where there would be no possibility for Japanese to contain the Chinese navy from going whereever it wants.
So Japan must keep the island to prevent the Chinese from breaking out into the pacific and threaten Japan with a naval blockade. However, keeping the island threatens to drive Taiwan into China's arms. That would potentially allow China to break out into the pacific far more unstoppably than just taking away a couple of virtually uninhabited islands in dispute.