Would you be an atheist if science and reason wasn't supportive of atheism?

[Vincenzo Vinny G.]

Did you come up with this yourself or did you copy and paste it?

So, in other words, you wouldn't like to elaborate. That's okay, I didn't expect you to anyway.

Along your first interpretation, it's absolutely false. Consider this analogy "In the United States, the probability of winning the lottery is exactly 1 in 1. But for Bob, because, well, there Bob is with his winning ticket."

It's not even a tiny smidgeon false. Read very carefully. Your analogy however, is pathetic. But for Bob what? If Bob has a winning ticket in his hands what is the probability of him winning the lottery Vinny?

That's not how probability works. In fact there's a name for the kind of fallacy you are using here. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

It is exactly how probability works, or more precisely..how it doesn't when you attempt to reach a conclusion about the likelihood of an event that's already happened by way of granting any given cause for shits and giggles.

It's when someone fires randomly at the side of a barn, and then draws bulls-eyes around the bullet-hole and calls himself a sharpshooter. Ie, you are using data that is not meant to give us proper probability.

That was my pro-tip, by the way.

That's not exactly what it is, but close enough. Maybe you could elaborate on the mountains of data I'm ignoring?

Of all the fucking things you could have officially gone all apologetic about, you chose fine tuning.......

The problem is, you have two separate, contradictory probabilities of Bob winning the lottery.

Before he wins it's 1 in n number of tickets.

After he wins it's 1 in 1?

This is nonsense. You can't have two different, contradictory probabilities for one situation.

After he wins, it's not even the same scenario, the previous odds don't apply.

I know how difficult it is to admit you were wrong and I'm right. So I won't even expect you to do anything other than make personal attacks and say "you're wrong, you're wrong" without engaging with what I'm saying.

But I hope you at least understand that you can't have two separate probabilities for the same instance. Just like you can't have two different heights using the same units for the same person at the same time in the same place.

Only one probability is right for Bob winning the lottery, and 1-1 is not it. That's why we're not out there buying up lottery tickets right now.