Mars?

[The Grand Nudger]

Re: tech base. No, really, we don't. How do you replace broken parts? How could you even make a new space suit?

The plan then involved constant resupply on a reasonable and well demonstrated scale. Was pretty much the least of anyone's worries. We can print now, but still, printing is in it's infancy, plenty would be resupply. Who knows, by 2030, the earliest we'll have the engines we need to get there with a payload appropriate? Things will break, to be sure...and at the worst times - but that's something that's been taken into account. We can't cover everything, of course, but the sorts of failures that would have to occur to doom those folks would probably doom them just as easily in a desert, on the ocean, or in the arctic here on earth. In terms of the solar system...Mars is a sweetheart environment, and there are certainly places on earth which are far less forgiving. We forget sometimes that our own rock is absolutely lethal - and that it's only because we're good at this kind of shit that we've done so well here.

The process of mining, refining, distilling, etc just to make a circuit board is ENORMOUSLY complex.

It's actually not, but I wouldn't expect them to put a pcb lab onboard. If they wanted to...they could, especially now that you can make a pcb with ink that's compatible with a home printer and MS notepad on the back cover of a magazine ( I still need to make that damned comp thread I promised...). Back when I made pcb's - it was alot more difficult (I can still taste the copper..lol). Nevertheless, I'd expect the usual redundancy and resupply that is precisely how we handle these things now.

This is besides our total inability to make a self-sustaining closed ecosystem. We do not have the knowledge to lock people up in a sealed area with energy and equipment have them recycle their water, air and food.

There's no need.

Biosphere 2 was an utter failure. As a trained ecologist, I know that's because they went for too much complexity.

Well, they also intentionally cut themselves off, which isn't something that will be a part of -any- mission plan to mars.

NASA is trying to figure out how to freeze dry cakes to send with the voyagers, when they need to be figuring out how to turn piss into algae bars.

Both would be fantastic (though, NASA already knows how to freeze dry cakes..cmon buddy), yes, and a mars mission would be great impetus to study that in greater detail - see.....these are the tangible benefits.

So...let's figure it out, here. In Antarctica. Everything has to be in place before the first colonists arrive, just as we'd pre-land their equipment on Mars.

Yep, it's just good procedure no matter what hostile environment you arrive in. Make sure the goods and the lifeboat get there first. On mars, it's the ERV (Earth Return Vehicle). With the plan as it stands some launches are double duty, and even though the "colony" is designed to be permanent, the "colonists" aren't. Consider them part of the resupply. Baby steps...baby steps.

Select a location with geothermal power (Mt. Erebus) and send about 500 people.

Not a requirement for a mars mission, but it would be nice if they could find it's equivalent. They plan to refine fuel (and thus water and oxygen) from soil (with the onboard reactors of secondary support vehicles as an initial power source), and the primary condition of a suitable LZ is the availability of water to existing equipment that fits the mission profile. The idea for this is twofold. The ERV lands with enough fuel to return, but there's no sense in counting on that if you can refuel every vehicle that you send - which we can.

They get one shipment of equipment a year, and they have to request anything a year in advance, but otherwise have no physical contact with the rest of the world.

The shipments in Mars Direct are slightly more aggressive, but not by much. It's a long way off, help is far away (though the boat home is always there, should they need it). This is true.

They do have IT contact - make it reality TV to fund it, if you have to, but mostly they have the knowledge of Earth to draw from.

You know, I think it would be a great way to fund initially, but, in the end...they wouldn't show the hilariously interesting shit and watching people stuck in a can will get boring quick. Especially these people, doing what they do. That said, there will probably always be a feed, if we decide to make the trip, yeah. They have the knowledge of earth (which is - impressive-) but also their own skills and experience, and whatever they can take or make. We've been in worse situations and fared very well. The plan has been doable for far longer than it was ever officially considered. We had the tech in the 70's (and alot of what we'll use if we ever do go..even in 2030 - is tech from the 50's-modified over the years, of course). The feasibility isn't even remotely an issue. It's just a matter of whether or not we have the will.